NBA - 803 Indiana Pacers @ 804 Dallas Mavericks
Projected Line: Dallas by 7 points
The Pacers had a nice win yesterday at Houston, even though they were shorthanded, but there was a lot of demerit from Houston, who showed that they are very inexperienced. They probably celebrated their win over San Antonio too much and so, they came to yesterday's game with no sense of urgency and without a proper game plan. Indiana simply crushed them down low with Roy Hibbert having a huge game with 11-17 FG, 28 points and 10-14 FG from 9 feet or closer to the basket! But I have also to mention that some of his baskets were lucky shots as well. Indiana also explored Houston's lazy transition defense quite well in order to have layups and dunks. As good as James Harden is on offense, he is a defensive liability and the player who Harden was supposed to defend had a field day because of that: Lance Stephenson had 9-14 FG and 21 points! From a defensive point of view, Indiana was... Indiana! They are awesome in rim defense and also in 3pts defense, something that they showed once again last night. Houston's offense is built around those two areas and they were stopped by the Pacers's defense. This is why I successfully took the Under on last night's game.
For tonight, on the other hand, I expect Indiana to struggle. Not only they will have a bad spot, as they will play their fifth game in seven days, including their win at Houston last night, as Dallas is also a tough matchup for them. Dallas's defense is far from the level of Indiana's defense and their main problems at the PG position. On their last game against the Clippers, Chris Paul did whatever he wanted to do with 12-15 FG, 33 points and 5 assists, while exposing the Mavericks's defense on this area. Fortunately for Dallas, George Hill is banged up and he shouldn't have played against the Rockets last night. He wasn't physically well and that's why he shot 1-11 FG in 38 minutes yesterday. Today, I don't expect Hill to suddenly recover and so, I believe Dallas won't get torched by their opposing PG this time. As I've mentioned several times in the past, Indiana's outside shooting is very inconsistent and it tends to get really cold on back to back games. This is why they are just shooting 36% FG from 16-23 feet and 30% treys on the second night of a back to back this season. Both David West and Danny Granger will return tonight, but I believe this won't be great news for them today, as the Pacers will need one or two games to establish their identity once again with these returns.
On the other side, Dallas's offense will actually be a tough matchup for the Pacers's defense than Houston was last night. Houston's frontcourt doesn't have anybody who is a solid mid-range shooter in order to remove the Pacers's frontcourt players from near the basket. So, Roy Hibbert didn't need to move yesterday from near the basket and he spent the game just contesting shots at the rim. That won't happen tonight with Dallas, who has Dirk Nowitzki back in good form, Elton Brand and Chris Kaman, three frontcourt players with solid shooting skills from mid-range. As I've mentioned previously, Indiana's defense is built to protect the rim and the 3pts shots. They want their opponents to shoot from the 16-23 feet area, generally the area where offenses are least efficient. The problem for Indiana tonight is that Dallas is one of the best shooting teams in the league from that area with 42.7% FG (#3 in the league). Their recent numbers have been even more amazing with 46% FG from 16-23 feet on their last 10 games! Indiana's defense is just #21 in the league on 16-23 feet defense and therefore, I expect Dallas's mid-range shooting to torch them tonight.
I believe that we have some considerable edges for Dallas tonight. Unlike Houston, Dallas is an experienced team and they will come to this game ultra focused, as if they win tonight, they will finally reach the .500 wins mark with a 36-36 record. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for the Mavericks tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 804 Dallas Mavericks (-3,5) @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline
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