NBA Free Premium Play 03/21: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Sacramento Kings

Minnesota  at Sacramento

NBA - 705 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 706 Sacramento Kings Projected Line: Sacramento by 2 points I actually believe Minnesota has a great chance of winning this game outright. First of all, I believe that due to Sacramento's mindset for this contest. They are coming from a mega win at home against the Clippers, where they were close to double digit dogs. But how are the Kings faring as home favorites after winning a game? Not well by being 1-4 ATS this season! More than that, Minnesota's offense will have some great edges in here. The Wolves have four guards running the offense and naturally their offense is super heavy on pick and roll ball handler plays and since the All Star break, 20% of their offensive plays have been pick and roll ball handler plays (#1 in the league in volume of this kind of play). Thanks to the speed that they have due to the fact that they use an undersized lineup, they are also having a considerable volume of transitions, besides the typical spot up plays. This means that pick and rolls + transitions + spot ups are currently representing something like 70% of Minnesota's offense right now. But how does Sacramento defend on these areas? Well, terribly! The Kings are the worst pick and roll ball handler defense in the league, while they are #28 in the league on transition defense. Therefore, the Wolves should be able to have a great offensive game tonight. On the other side, it's true that Minnesota's defense has their limitations. However, Nikola Pekovic and Andrei Kirilenko are back and they help the team improving on defense big time. But what I like on the Wolves's defense for this contest is their ability to force turnovers. Minnesota's defensive pressure on the opposing ball handler is excellent, especially Ricky Rubio who has been amazing on this area lately. Sacramento's guards don't take care of the ball well and so, the Wolves have the perfect opponent in here to force turnovers and completely ruin Sacramento's offensive flow on this contest. I believe Sacramento will overlook Minnesota tonight and with the Wolves exploring the Kings's poor defense, I expect Minnesota to be super competitive today. Therefore, I'll be taking the Timberwolves in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Minnesota Timberwolves (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker