NBA - 511 Miami Heat @ 512 Boston Celtics
Projected Line: Miami by 9 points
We have in here a big game, with Miami putting their 22-games winning streak on the line in Boston tonight. Everybody is saying that this is the game that Miami is going to lose and the fact that the Heat have lost their last 10 regular season games at Boston, including a loss this season. It was also the Celtics that ended Houston's 22-games winning streak back in 2008 and with this game being shown at ESPN, there is a lot of hype regarding tonight's game.
The problem for Boston is that even though they will benefit from Miami's poor spot (third game in four nights plus a back to back game), the truth is that the bad spot is almost compensated by Miami being 100% focused for tonight's game. And for anybody that has watched the NBA over the last month, when Miami is focused, they are the best team in the league by a mile. On this winning streak, it has been frequent to see Miami struggle against lowly teams and leaving them hanging on the scoreboard until the last minutes of the game. However, when they inserted an extra gear, it's game over. Their game at Toronto is a good example of that, as the Raptors were crushing Miami on the boards (24-2 edge on offensive boards) and the score was tied at 77, until Miami made a huge run to put the score at 105-81!
On the last game between these two teams at Boston, Miami lost in double overtime on a contest where Rajon Rondo was a late scratch, something that left Miami surprised and unfocused. The best player of that contest was Kevin Garnett with 10-19 FG, 24 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists, but he is doubtful for tonight. Miami outrebounded Boston by grabbing 55% of the boards and having a 17-8 offensive rebound edge, something that shows how weak the Celtics really are on rebounds. The "easiest" way to defeat the Heat is to dominate them on the glass to get extra chances of scoring plus taking away Miami's offensive flow. As Boston is unable to do that and their offense isn't consistent enough to compete with the well oiled machine of Miami, Boston becomes a decent matchup for the Heat. Boston's offense since Rondo got injured is run by multiple guards, where their main focus is to run pick and rolls plus attacking early on the shotclock to score easy transition points. Miami's defense may have some flaws, but they are really good on these two areas by being #2 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense with 0.72 PPP allowed and also #2 in the league on transition defense with 1.04 PPP allowed. This will be a statement game for Miami and so, I expect them to pick an easy win tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511 Miami Heat (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
No comments:
Post a Comment