Projected Lines: Memphis by 6 points | 185 points
This is a terrible spot for Washington, who had to play a 3-game road trip on the West Coast and they are now returning home with just 1 day off, after playing last Saturday night at Golden State. To make things worse for them, the Wizards are shorthanded on the backcourt, as A.J. Price and Bradley Beal are still out due to injuries, while Trevor Ariza is also doubtful for tonight due to illness. So, Garrett Temple was forced to play 43 minutes against the Warriors and it is expected that he will need to play major minutes against the Grizzlies tonight as well. On the other side, Memphis is without Marc Gasol for tonight due to an abdominal injury and they will play their third game in four days tonight. They won their last game at home against Boston last Saturday night, but it wasn't easy, as they were without Marc Gasol while Zach Randolph started the game on the bench due to disciplinary reasons. However, this actually allowed the Grizzlies to show that they have solid backups, as Ed Davis had 4-7 FG, 11 points, 8 rebounds and 5 blocks on this game, while Jerryd Bayless was the game's MVP with 11-20 FG and 30 points!
On tonight's game, I expect Washington's offense to struggle a bit in generating points against Memphis's defense. We are talking about a team that is shorthanded on their backcourt and so, Memphis will be able to focus on John Wall and so, he won't have an easy game today. The Wizards also need to score in transition badly to be effective and Memphis's defense is #5 in the league on this area by allowing 1.08 PPP. On the other hand, as much as Wall has been playing well on offense, he has been poor on defense. Washington has been having horrible pick and roll ball handler defensive numbers since the All Star break, while having also a poor transition defense and even their post up defense is regressing as well. Nene Hilario hasn't been focused a lot on defense lately and this has been allowing the Wizards's opponents to shoot 69% FG at the rim against them!
Therefore, I expect Memphis to be able to control this game and take advantage of Washington's injury problems and poor spot to have comfortably beat tonight. On the other hand, Memphis played at a much faster pace than usual against Boston by changing their offensive approach, now that they are playing without Marc Gasol. Their offense generally doesn't require speed, as they can count on Marc Gasol's playmaking skills down low. But as they don't have it right now, the Grizzlies is now forced to run more and to keep the game tempo up. I expect them to do the same tonight, turning this game into a surprising relatively fast paced game, something that on its own will allow this game to go Over the total posted, based on the extremely low totals line. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Grizzlies and the Over tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 605/606 Over 181,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 605 Memphis Grizzlies (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment