Thursday, March 21, 2013

NBA Premium Play 03/20: Boston Celtics @ New Orleans Hornets


NBA - 609 Boston Celtics @ 610 New Orleans Hornets

Projected Line: 183 points

Boston will have Kevin Garnett back today and they have the right defense to shutdown the Hornets's offense. Boston is an elite defense on pick and rolls and spot ups, so that can really defend New Orleans's offense in the two areas that they use the most on their plays. Avery Bradley will put a lot of pressure on Greivis Vasquez and with their PG struggling, the Hornets will struggle on offense tonight. Boston's main defensive problem is on transitions, but New Orleans is super half court oriented, so they won't brings problems to Boston's defense tonight. The Hornets scored just double digits fast break points once on their last 9 games and it was 11 point at Minnesota, so the Hornets won't bring any danger to Boston tonight.

On the other hand, Boston is coming from a mega effort against Miami on their last game, with three of their players being on court for over 40 minutes. The general rule for the Celtics is them struggling on offense on the following game after a super effort, mostly due to the fact that they aren't a good offensive rebounding team, they have a low number of free throw attempts and with them shooting so much from long range, it's hard for them to be consistent when they don't have fresh legs. This is why they scored just 74 points at Charlotte last week for example. This will be a slow paced game, as the Hornets play at this style and the Celtics won't want to push up the pace after such effort against the Heat, so we have all the ingredients to have a low scoring game in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on this game.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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