NBA - 879 Golden State Warriors @ 880 Houston Rockets
Projected Line: Houston by 4 points
I see good value on the Warriors tonight, as their offense on a good day can match Houston's offensive efficiency. Both teams have good offensive numbers on isolations, pick and rolls ball handlers, post ups, while in spot ups, the Rockets are indeed a bit better than the Warriors since the All Star break (1.23 PPP vs 0.89 PPP). However, Golden State is being more effective on their transitions than Houston to compensate the Rockets's more efficient spot up shooting.
The Warriors have been very inconsistent lately by alternating amazing offensive games with some poor ones. They are coming from a clear home loss against Chicago, where the Bulls's elite defense was able to do some great close outs on the Warriors's shooters. This wasn't a surprise, as the Bulls are #2 in the league on spot up defense. Of course the Rockets are very far from this level by being #23 in the league on spot up defense with 1.01 PPP allowed for the season and 1.05 PPP allowed since the All Star break, so I expect Golden State to bounce back on their outside shooting tonight.
Houston's offense is obviously a big threat for the Warriors's defense, but like I've mentioned before, with the Warriors's offense working well, they can match Houston's offense. The Rockets are 3-0 on this series, with the last game being a pure ball game. These two teams know each other really well and so, I believe the Rockets are being overrated tonight, as the difference between these two teams isn't big and Golden State is coming for this contest with triple revenge and also from a home loss against Chicago. Therefore, I expect this contest to be a close one and so, I'll be taking Golden State tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 879 Golden State Warriors (+7,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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