Saturday, March 30, 2013

NBA Premium Play 03/29: Philadelphia 76ers @ Cleveland Cavaliers


NBA - 853 Philadelphia 76ers @ 854 Cleveland Cavaliers

Projected Line: 198 points
Cleveland is absolutely on tank mode right now. They are playing without their two most talented players in Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters, but they keep showing no defensive effort, while the pace of their games has been increased in an incredible way. Their season pace is 91.3, while they have been average a pace factor of 93.0 on their last 10 games and 93.3 on their last 5 games! Defensively, the Cavaliers continue to be horrible down low. They are allowing their opponents to shoot 67% FG at the rim, while their perimeter defense isn't being any better. For today's game, I don't expect any of this to change, so Cleveland will play on a fast tempo and defend terribly. Therefore, the question in here will be to know if they will be able to be efficient on offense or not.

I believe that will happen as Philadelphia is on a similar path. The Sixers are coming from a nice home win against Milwaukee, where they showed how much they have improved on offense lately, with a healthy Jrue Holiday and Thaddeus Young leading the way. Philadelphia pounded Milwaukee with 60 points in the paint and 20 fast break points, while showing a good ball movement with 28 assists. Defensively, Milwaukee was held to just 41.6% FG, but in my opinion there was more demerit from the Bucks's offense in that than merit from Philadelphia's defense, as Milwaukee just couldn't hit an outside shot to save their lives: 3-15 FG from 10-15 feet, 5-19 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-24 3pts!

The first two games between these two teams were low scoring contests played in November. Things will be much different today, as both teams won't have tonight the defensive focus that they had at the start of the season and so, this will quickly turn into a high scoring affair. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 853/854 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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