Projected Line: 194 points | Dallas by 1 point
After getting crushed by Brooklyn, Dallas has good news in tonight's game against Boston, as the Celtics don't have a dominant Center or a great Point Guard to dominate the Mavericks in the two positions where they are struggling the most. With Shawn Marion also likely to be back tonight, Dallas should definitely do a much better defensive job tonight than they did on their last two games against Atlanta and Brooklyn. Boston's offense relies on pick and roll ball handler plays and spot ups, as they are a typical jump shooting team, and the Mavericks's defense is decent on these two areas, even though they are regressing a bit on spot up defense with 1.05 PPP allowed since the All-Star break. However, Boston isn't on a great spot for tonight, as they made a massive effort last Monday night against Boston and then lost a ballgame at New Orleans last Wednesday, so I don't expect the Celtics's offense to have their super fresh legs to have a great jump shooting game tonight.
On the other hand, Dallas has been using a lot of pick and roll ball handlers lately, with 17% volume since the All Star break. Their problem for tonight is that the Celtics are an elite defensive team against this kind of plays. Kevin Garnett will also be a tough opponent for Dirk Nowitzki, while Boston's perimeter defense is also excellent and they will prevent the Mavericks from hitting the treys that they need to have good offensive games. The only area where Dallas will have a nice offensive edge tonight is on transitions, but that isn't enough on its own to allow Dallas to have a good offensive game tonight, when they are getting shutdown in both pick and rolls and spot ups. After their loss at New Orleans, Doc Rivers and Avery Bradley reassured that their team needs to be more effective and less spectacular to get back to winning games:
"We absolutely deserved to lose the game, whether we won it or not," said Celtics coach Doc Rivers. "We deserved to lose the game. We went from being a solid, just a good looking basketball team, to showtime. I believe in the basketball gods. When you mess with the game, the game messes you up."
"We just can't play down to anybody," said Avery Bradley. "We have to play consistent; that's what we have to do every single game and we didn't do that tonight."
I expect Boston to more very solid tonight, especially on defense, even though their offense is likely to struggle a bit tonight. This should turn this game into a relatively low-scoring game, therefore I'll be taking the Under in here. As I expect the Celtics to bounce back tonight and show that they aren't an inferior team to Dallas, I'll be taking Boston in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 815/816 Under 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 815 Boston Celtics (+4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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