Sunday, March 31, 2013

NBA Premium Play 03/30: Brooklyn Nets @ Utah Jazz


NBA - 513 Brooklyn Nets @ 514 Utah Jazz

Projected Line: pk line

I have no problems in admitting that I made a mistake in taking the Nets yesterday at Denver. In fact, the biggest error of my card yesterday was taking the Nets on a game where they showed no interest in getting physical with Denver. They turned the ball too much with 21 turnovers, they shot 18-36 FT and they didn't want to bang around with Denver's frontcourt, allowing 62 points in the paint in the process. When Brook Lopez had 4-15 FG and 3-9 FT versus Kostas Koufos, who shoot 6-8 FG, something is wrong with the Nets.

In my opinion, this happened due to the fact that Brooklyn knew that it was going to be impossible to be competitive in back to back games in Denver and then in Utah. Definitely, tonight's game is much more important for their team leader Deron Williams and so, I expect Deron and the rest of the Nets to show a major effort tonight in Deron's comeback to Utah. He will have a very favorable matchup tonight, as Mo Williams is undersized and he can't really defend, while Utah's Coach Corbin keeps using Jamaal Tinsley off the bench instead of giving major minutes to their best PG Alec Burks. Thanks to that, Brooklyn will have a huge positional edge tonight.

The frontcourt duel will be very interesting in tonight's game. Utah's frontcourt crushed Portland tonight, with Paul Millsap shooting 10-14 FG, Al Jefferson 11-21 FG and Derrick Favors 6-8 FG, but the story will be much different tonight, as Utah won't be facing a banged up J.J. Hickson and Meyers Leonard tonight. The Nets have Brook Lopez, Reggie Evans and Andray Blatche on the frontcourt and I expect the Nets to make this frontcourt duel at least a 50/50 one.

Utah may have won their last three games, but all these wins were in very favorable circumstances. They defeated Philadelphia, a team that was playing the last game of their road trip and they saved their players throughout the game. Then, they defeated the lowly Suns who played without Goran Dragic and finally, they defeated Portland on the road, who played without their best player LaMarcus Aldridge. I believe Utah is being overrated tonight and so, I'll be taking the Nets plus the points in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 Brooklyn Nets (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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