NBA - 655 Los Angeles Clippers @ 656 Dallas Mavericks
Projected Line: 199 points
I expect this contest to be a relatively low-scoring game. Dallas is coming from a nice home win over Utah, where they actually did a nice defensive job against the Jazz until they allowed them to score 28 points in the final 5:26 after the game, when the game was relatively solved for the Mavericks. Elton Brand did a really nice job on defense by limiting both Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap, so I expect them to show a good defensive effort tonight as well, on this very important game for Dallas. The main weapon that the Clippers have on offense to pound the Mavericks's defense is Chris Paul, who has a great matchup against the Mavericks's Point Guards, however he is banged up with a knee injury and if he plays tonight, he is unlikely to be at 100% physically tonight.
On the other hand, the Clippers's are playing better transition defense lately and that's really important for them, as they will play a good transition team like Dallas tonight. The LA team is #1 in the league on pick and roll defense and their only struggle has been on spot up defense, an area where Dallas has some talent, but not enough to pound the Clippers's defense tonight with a bunch of treys, especially when the Clippers's issues on this area are mostly related with laziness and lack of effort, something unlikely to happen on a close contest broadcast on National TV. I expect the pace of this game to be relatively slow, with the Mavericks showing some great effort on defense, especially with Shawn Marion putting extra pressure on a banged up Chris Paul, while the Clippers's defense should also be able to limit Dallas's transitions and pick and rolls. Therefore, looking at the high totals line, we have value on the Under tonight and so, I'll be taking it in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 655/656 Under 202,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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