Wednesday, March 27, 2013

NBA Free Premium Play 03/27: Orlando Magic @ Charlotte Bobcats

  
Orlando  at Charlotte 
NBA - 753 Orlando Magic @ 754 Charlotte Bobcats

Projected Lines: Charlotte by 6 points


This game might actually be a fun one to watch! Orlando is now playing without Nikola Vucevic and so, they are playing super small small. They are coming from a home loss against Miami, where Jameer Nelson and Beno Udrih played together on the backcourt for almost 40 minutes! The Magic had 31% volume on spot ups, 14% volume on transitions and 20% volume on isolations against the Heat, something normal considering their super small lineups. They will now play at Charlotte and I believe Kemba Walker is going to have a big game against them tonight, as he won't have problems into penetrating into the basket against a poor Magic defense with no big bodies on the court and with no defensive worries at all. Charlotte's offense is mostly based on pick and rolls plus transition plays and considering Orlando's poor pick and roll defense and terrible transition defense (1.25 PPP allowed on their last 10 games), the Bobcats have a great chance of having a big offensive game tonight.

Charlotte's defense is an overall very poor unit, but their perimeter defense is especially poor. However, Orlando isn't a great outside shooting team, especially since Arron Afflalo got injured. Therefore, I believe Charlotte is going to comfortable win this game. Even though this has possibly gone under the radar for a lot of people, the Bobcats have been playing quite nicely recently for their usual level. They defeated Washington and Toronto at home, while they lost against Detroit down the stretch. I believe this will be a very fast paced game, with both teams using very small lineups, but with Charlotte taking advantage of Orlando's defensive problems with Kemba Walker having a big game tonight. Considering the fact that the Bobcats have been playing better than Orlando lately, they have a big edge on pick and rolls with Kemba Walker tonight and they play at home, I believe they will have a surprisingly comfortable win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 754 Charlotte Bobcats (-2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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