Sunday, March 31, 2013

NBA Premium Play 03/30: Charlotte Bobcats @ Philadelphia 76ers

NBA - 505 Charlotte Bobcats @ 506 Philadelphia 76ers

Projected Line: 191 points

We have two teams in here that are coming from back to back games, where they heavily used their starters. Philadelphia still feels that they have a shot in going to the playoffs and so, Coach Collins wants to win at any cost, while Charlotte is using their starters a lot, as they have been competitive lately and Coach Dunlap is trying to get some decent results in order to avoid getting fired at the end of the season. That's why Kemba Walker played 41 minutes and Gerald Henderson 46 minutes yesterday in NY against the Knicks. Just like I've been mentioning for a while, the Bobcats's offense really needs their two main guards to perform well in order to be remotely competitive. That happened last night with Henderson having 9-16 FG, 35 points and 15-17 FT! Now on a back to back spot, after a huge effort yesterday, it's normal that they will have a letdown today and with that, the Bobcats's offense will heavily struggle.

The same will happen with Philadelphia. They didn't want to waste their chance of winning last night at Cleveland, but thanks to that, all their starters played at least 36 minutes. Coach Collins is putting the Sixers playing at a ridiculously slow pace during the fourth quarter in order to spend as much time as possible to keep their leads in the games and this is why their last two games at Milwaukee and Cleveland had such a small amount of points scored during the fourth quarter. We are also in front of two teams in here whose offense is super perimeter-oriented, so on poor spots, they immediately struggle. Their offensive rates in back to back games this season has been clearly worse than on spots where they are rested, so I expect a low scoring game in here tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

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