NBA - 807 Detroit Pistons @ 808 Miami Heat
Projected Line: 202 points
Detroit's defense has been historically bad lately. These are their defensive ratings from their last 10 games: 104.83; 118.86; 117.81; 102.29; 114.74; 135.73; 122.48; 128.68; 122.09; 137.55! That's an average defensive rating of 120.5! Considering they will now face the best offensive team in the league, another poor defensive performance for them seems inevitable tonight. The Pistons's defensive rebounding is also very poor and they are allowing 70% FG at the rim. Greg Monroe refuses to defend and the Pistons are now the worst 3pts defensive team in the league since the All Star break, after having led the league in 3pts% allowed early on the season for a full regression: first to last! There are several reasons why their defense has been so poor. First of all, their available players are indeed poor defenders and that is getting exposed due to Tayshaun Prince getting traded to Memphis and both Brandon Knight and Andre Drummond being currently unavailable due to injuries. These three players were the best defensive players of Detroit early on the season and with all three out of the lineup, the Pistons's defense collapsed.
Miami is coming from a game in Cleveland, where their offensive letdown in the first half was entirely their fault, with a bunch of open shots being unusually missed. But when they woke up in the second half, they torched the Cavaliers's defense with 34+30 points in the second half. For today, I expect Miami's spot to be better than it was against Cleveland, especially since they play at home. On the last game between these two teams, Miami's offense crushed Detroit with 56% FG, 56 points in the paint, but they shot just 5-17 (29.4%) 3pts. Looking at Detroit's current defensive level and their regression on their perimeter defense, I can only expect Miami to have a huge offensive game tonight. On the other hand, Detroit has some chances of having a decent offensive game in here. They scored 10, 12, 17, 26 and 20 fast break points on their last five games and 50, 62 and 52 points in the paint on their last three games. Looking at Miami's typically lazy transition defense on "easy" games and their undersized lineup, Detroit has a good chance of scoring tonight in quick transitions and also pound the Heat's undersized interior defense with Greg Monroe. Therefore, I expect a high scoring game on this contest and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 198,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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