NBA - 777 Brooklyn Nets @ 778 Portland Trailblazers
Projected Line: pk line
This isn't a good spot at all for Portland, who is returning home from a road trip and they have been especially terrible on this spot this season by going 0-5 ATS and 1-4 SU on their first home game against a road trip of at least 3 games: 90-103 vs LAC; 80-99 vs SAC; 125-119 (OT) vs ORL; 98-102 vs PHX; 97-102 vs MEM. But it's not only the spot that is poor for the Blazers tonight, as the Nets offer them a tough overall matchup as well. Brooklyn is the right team to make Portland struggle on the two positions where they've been struggling on defense all season long: Center + Point Guard! Brook Lopez will crush Portland down low, as the Blazers's interior defense is poor and so, no wonder that they are #27 on post up defense with 0.88 PPP allowed this season and 0.91 PPP allowed on their last 10 games. Then, Deron Williams will outplay the rookie Damian Lillard, who is still very raw on defense and has no size to stop Deron's dribble penetrations.
Besides that, Brooklyn will also have a nice rebounding edge tonight due to their bigger size and frontcourt depth. Reggie Evans will also physically punish LaMarcus Aldridge tonight, who has been struggling physically for a while now. Portland's offense depends a lot from their outside shooting nowadays and the only positive factor coming from Joe Johnson's absence is that Brooklyn is starting Keith Bogans at the SG position, who is a very nice defender. In fact, Brooklyn's perimeter defensive has been having nice numbers lately with 37% FG allowed from 16-23 feet and 30% 3pts defense (#2 on the league) on their last 10 games. With the Nets having matchup edges on the PG and Center positions, a rebounding edge, a better bench and with LaMarcus Aldridge struggling physically, I expect Brooklyn to pick up the win today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 777 Brooklyn Nets (+3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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