Thursday, February 28, 2013

NBA Premium Play 02/27: Sacramento Kings @ Orlando Magic


NBA - 703 Sacramento Kings @ 704 Orlando Magic

Projected Line: Sacramento by 5 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Orlando was able to beat Philadelphia on the road last night, even though they were double digits dogs! They had some merit, but what really impressed me was the lack of effort from Philadelphia, in such a way that Coach Collins called out the entire team! I don't believe Orlando will show lack of effort in their following games, with their young players trying to impress the coach. Their problem is really their lack of talent. Orlando is a pure jump shooting team with only Nikola Vucevic being able to operate well down low. Yesterday the Magic shot just 15-19 FG at the rim versus a huge percentage volume of shots from the outside. Fortunately for them, Orlando was very well on their outside shooting with 13-27 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-13 treys! This was great for them, but I don't believe they will be able to do that two nights in a row. On defense, Orlando benefited from Philadelphia's complete lack of aggressiveness, who scored just 26 points in the paint, while shooting just 8-10 FG at the rim! Orlando's interior defense has been poor the whole season, but the Sixers never tested that yesterday, as only 19% of their shots came from 9 feet or closer to the basket, in comparison to 60% from 16 feet or further! 

This won't certainly happen tonight against Sacramento, as the Kings have good frontcourt players like DeMarcus Cousins, Jason Thompson or Patrick Patterson. They scored 60 points in the paint last night in Miami, while shooting 25-42 (60%) FG at the rim. Of course this isn't a great spot for them, as they are coming from a double overtime game last night against the Heat, where five of their players were on the court for more than 40 minutes! However, the truth is that Orlando is playing shorthanded and they will be playing their sixth game in nine days, so this isn't an easy spot for them neither. Of course I don't expect to see Sacramento showing a lot of defensive intensity, but Orlando's poor interior defense is going to get pounded big time tonight. If Sacramento had won yesterday, then they would be on a letdown spot today, but the Kings are certainly looking for a win on their current road trip and yesterday's game gave them a lot of confidence, as they went toe-to-toe with the best team in the league. Therefore, I expect Sacramento's superior talent to get the best out of Orlando tonight and so, I'll be taking the Kings in here on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 703 Sacramento Kings (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

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