Saturday, February 23, 2013

NBA Free Premium Play 02/23: Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons

  
Indiana  at Detroit 
NBA - 507 Indiana Pacers @ 508 Detroit Pistons

Projected Line: 184 points


The Pistons weren't mentally and physically ready to face Indiana last night. Detroit had won on the road against the lowly Bobcats and they came with the wrong mindset for last night's game at Indiana, where they got completely crushed. They were even down by 40 points at one point! Jose Calderon summed up the game perfectly:

“It's easy to explain. Easier than you think. We didn’t play defense the way we were supposed to. We didn’t make shots. That’s what happened. When you get a good team like Indiana playing like that … they beat the Knicks by 30 a couple of days ago. We knew what to expect”

Not only Detroit's offense struggled with 3-19 3pts, 21-37 (56.8%) FT and 15-32 FG from 9 feet or closer to the basket, as Indiana wouldn't miss a single shot with an incredible 10-14 3pts! With this game being the second game of a home-home series, the key factor in here will be if Detroit will be able to bounce back or not. Will they be competitive tonight? Of course they will have to improve on both offense and defense, but against the Pacers, I believe they will struggle in having a great offensive game. After all, we are talking about the team that is #1 in the league in overall defense and the Pistons scored just 77, 79 and 82 points on their first three games against Indiana this season.

Detroit's offense is mostly based on Greg Monroe's post ups and passes, but Indiana has simply the best defensive backcourt in the league. The Pacers's are an excellent defensive team, even on back to back games, where they are averaging a great defensive rating of 102.99, so Detroit's will struggle tonight on offense once again. The key will be on the other side of the court. Detroit will definitely show more effort on defense tonight in comparison to last night, while I expect a natural offensive letdown from the Pacers, especially on their long range shooting. It's very hard to give sequence to a 10-14 3pts shooting game, while at the same time they shot just 3-13 FG from 16-23 feet! The Pacers don't really have great shooters (even though Paul Goerge is having an amazing season) and on back to back games, their shooting hasn't been very effective, as it was clear on their last back to back game, where they had scored 114 points at home against Atlanta with 11-25 treys, but in the following day at Philadelphia, they scored just 88 points with 5-17 treys. Therefore, I believe this game will be a low scoring affair and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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