NBA - 501 Miami Heat @ 502 Chicago Bulls
Projected Line: PK Line
NOTE: The Public is completely all over Miami on this contest. Chicago +3.5 has enough value as well to take them, however I would wait to bet on this game if you can't get the +4 for now, as the line is likely to keep rising, as the public is all over the Heat.
Just like it has been happening in almost all games of their winning streak, Miami didn't need to play their best basketball for the whole game at Atlanta last night. How often a team is outscored by 39-56 in two quarters and still wins the game by 13 points? Miami struggled in stopping Atlanta's transition game that scored 23 fast break points and shot 11-15 FG in transition plays, while Al Horford completely dominated Chris Bosh, Horford started the game w/ 9-9 from the field! However already in the fourth quarter, Miami scored 9 quick points and then Atlanta just panicked. They didn't attack early on the shotclock and they became a halfcourt team instead and just like I had written yesterday on my Miami pick, Atlanta would be completely outplayed in a half court game against Miami and especially, Lebron James's greatness, who scored just 4 points in the fourth quarter, but compensated that by dishing 8 assists during the last 12 minutes of the game.
For tonight, Miami has on their schedule another National TV game, this time at Chicago. By the way, the Heat have been playing well lately on National TV, with wins over the Clippers, the Lakers and Oklahoma City. They are currently on a 8-games streak with a 110 offensive rating or higher in every contest, therefore it will be interesting to watch how Chicago's elite defense will be able to stop Miami's offense tonight or not. I also remember that the Bulls went to Miami to beat Heat outright earlier on the season, so Miami has some revenge in their mind for tonight's game. However, it's important to note that Chicago is now healthy and rested, something that hasn't been happening to them for a while.
For tonight, Miami has on their schedule another National TV game, this time at Chicago. By the way, the Heat have been playing well lately on National TV, with wins over the Clippers, the Lakers and Oklahoma City. They are currently on a 8-games streak with a 110 offensive rating or higher in every contest, therefore it will be interesting to watch how Chicago's elite defense will be able to stop Miami's offense tonight or not. I also remember that the Bulls went to Miami to beat Heat outright earlier on the season, so Miami has some revenge in their mind for tonight's game. However, it's important to note that Chicago is now healthy and rested, something that hasn't been happening to them for a while.
No matter what, Chicago is always a tough matchup for Miami due to their physical power down low and also because of the way the Bulls defend as well. Coach Thibodeau's defensive scheme relies on disciplined rotations and great close outs on the outside. So, it isn't a surprise that Chicago's defense is #3 in the league in 3pts with just 33.9% 3pts allowed and #2 in spot up defense with just 0.87 PPP allowed.
The most similar team to Chicago on this league is Indiana and if we combined the results of these two teams against Miami, the team from Florida is 0-3 SU this season against them! Chris Anderson is out for today, so the Heat will be once again undersized down low and completely vulnerable to a pounding from the Bulls on the offensive glass, something that also creates problems o Miami's offensive transition plays. Chicago won a game outright at Miami earlier on the season mostly because of an incredible edge on the rebounding department. According to my numbers, Chicago grabbed 66% of the rebounds of that game, while also havin a 19-4 edge on offensive rebounding!
With Chris Anderson out and Udonis Haslem banged up, we can expect to watch the Heat play major minutes tonight with Udonis Haslem, Lebron James and Chris Bosh in the frontcourt. This will give a tremendous size edge to Chicago. The Bulls's offense is very competent even though they don't have Miami's start power. They share the ball pretty well and on their last game at New Orleans, they had 30 assists in 39 FG made! One of Miami's defensive weaknesses is on their post up defense and so, Carlos Boozer has a great chance to shine on National stage tonight. This wouldn't be a surprise as Boozer pounded Miami earlier on the season with 12-17 FG, 27 points and 12 rebounds!
Miami will be on a back to back spot tonight and so, this is not a good spot for them tonight, especially against a Bulls team that is really a bad matchup for them. I expect Chicago to be very competitive tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Chicago Bulls (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
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