NBA Free Premium Play 02/19: Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets

Boston  at Denver

NBA - 511 Boston Celtics @ 512 Denver Nuggets Projected Line: Denver by 5 points Denver ended the first half of the season banged up and beaten up by losing their last three games. It was a brutal span for them that ended up in Brooklyn with the Nuggets playing their fourth game in five nights, having played a triple overtime game at Boston in the middle of that span. To make things worse for them, Andre Iguodala and Danilo Gallinari didn't play the last two games and even though Denver was competitive, they couldn't win the two games down the stretch. For today, Denver finally had some rest and Iguodala and Gallinari will be back for tonight's contest, where Denver is coming back home where they have a 22-3 record so far on this season. The game between these two teams at Boston two weeks ago was one of the best games of the season so far. Boston should had won in regulation, but then they should have lost in the first overtimes. The Celtics have been losing players almost every single week, but they keep remaining competitive due to a great team chemistry that they hadn't shown early on the season. Paul Pierce and Jason Terry are rested for tonight's game, while Kevin Garnett only played six minutes in the All Star game, so the Celtics's veteran players won't have to deal with dead legs for tonight's showdown. The Celtics were obviously outrebounded by Denver in the first game between the two teams, but they managed to compensate that by forcing turnovers, while being more assertive at the free throw line. They will need to do the same thing tonight if they want to be competitive on this contest, as Denver will surely be ready for some payback tonight. Just because the Nuggets are playing at home, this doesn't mean that they will crush every single team that they face in Denver! Before going on their recent road trip, the Nuggets had a series of games where they crushed their opponents at home, but where they also had some favorable matchups. We know that Denver crushes their opponents in transitions, especially at home, and they faced Sacramento (#26 on transition defense), Houston (#27), New Orleans (#28), Milwaukee (#21) and Chicago (#29)! Boston is still ranked #30 on transition defense, but since their game against Miami where they lost Rajon Rondo for the season, they received a huge boost on this area by starting Avery Bradley and Courtney Lee together in the backcourt. Boston is allowing 1.23 PPP this season on transition plays, but since that game, they have allowed just 1.07 PPP! Boston's defense has been an elite team on defending pick and roll ball handler plays and in forcing turnovers, so I like the Celtics on this matchup and this is why I took them with a -2 line in the game played at Boston two Sundays ago. Of course that Denver will be playing at home, but we aren't talking about one of those bad physical spots where the Celtics are crushed due to their lack of physical ability. I expect Boston to be competitive tonight, with their offense taking advantage of the fact that Denver's defense is a weak team in closing out on the shooters. This is why in the first game Boston had more success on the outside with 13-30 (43.3%) 3pts than on 2pts shots, where they shot 30-78 (38.6%) FG! I believe the Celtics will be a competitive underdog tonight, so I'll be taking them in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511 Boston Celtics (+8,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline