NBA - 717 Atlanta Hawks @ 718 Utah Jazz
Projected Line: Utah by 8 points
Atlanta has a major handicap for tonight's game and that is Zaza Pachulia's injury. Even if he plays tonight (he is questionable), he won't be physically at 100% and the Hawks needed him at his best to avoid getting outmuscled by Utah's powerful frontcourt. Atlanta is 3-0 since the All Star Break, but they have just grabbed 47.62%, 42.10% and 47.44% of the rebounds on these games. They will now facing a Jazz team that should be able to do a nice defensive job tonight by stopping Atlanta in transition. Utah is #11 in the league on transition defense with 1.13 PPP allowed and with their young backcourt players, they should be even better than their season average shows.
Utah had a dark period where Coach Corbin insisted in giving major minutes to veterans like Jamaal Tinsley and Randy Foye, two players who are slow footed and they were constantly exposed on the break because of that. Tinsley has completely lost his spot on the rotation and on their last game against the Celtics, it was Earl Watson the team's starting PG, with Tinsley getting a DNP, while Foye's minutes have been getting reduced as well, as he played only 20 minutes against Boston, even though the game went to overtime! With Alec Burks, DeMarre Carroll and Gordon Hayward, Utah gains a lot of athleticism on the perimeter and they can be a great transition defensive team, something that will cause a lot of problems to Atlanta's offense, as they depend a lot from their transition plays to be productive.
On offense, the Jazz will have a clear edge on post up plays. Atlanta's defense is mediocre against this kind of plays by being just ranked #20 in the league with 0.84 PPP allowed and they have been regressing lately with 0.93 PPP over their last 10 games! Without Zaza Pachulia or with him limited, Utah's edge on this area only gets even bigger! On the first game played between these two teams, Utah dominated until the middle of the third quarter, where they led by 75-60, just to some poor coaching decision from Utah's coach in not taking a timeout during a big Atlanta run, while allowing Randy Foye to play a team high 41 minutes, allowed the Hawks to comeback in the game and win it at the end. This time, and after a rare home loss against Boston, Utah will be fired up tonight to outplay Atlanta, who won't be able to match the same level of aggressiveness. Therefore, I expect the Jazz to pick up an easy win tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 718 Utah Jazz (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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