NBA - 509 Miami Heat @ 510 Philadelphia 76ers
Projected Line: 189 points
Miami's offense has a new chance to keep rolling tonight against Philadelphia. On their last game at Chicago, the Heat scored "just" 86 points against the top ranked defense of the Bulls, but this was mostly due to the fact that Chicago dominated the boards and the turnovers committed by the Heat. However, it's important to note that Miami shot 50.7% FG in that game! For tonight, Miami won't have any problems in scoring against Philadelphia's defense that lacks frontcourt presence to do what the Bulls did to Miami last Thursday. Philadelphia'a defense has been having pretty decent numbers lately, but this is mostly due to the fact that they faced several poor offensive teams such as Minnesota, Milwaukee, Charlotte, Orlando, Sacramento and Washington! The last time that they faced a top offensive team, they allowed 107 points and an offensive rating of 128 to the Clippers at home!
The key question on this matchup will be related with the Heat's defense and the Sixers's offense. Philadelphia's offense has little talent this season and they only got worse since they lost Thaddeus Young with a hamstring injury. So, if Miami shows a decent defensive effort tonight, they will shutdown Philadelphia's offense tonight. The problem is that I don't believe Miami will show a lot of effort on defense tonight. After all, they are coming from three straight games against top teams in Oklahoma City, Atlanta and Chicago, where they showed a big effort. After tonight's game, they will face Cleveland at home on a back to back game in the always interesting matchup between Lebron and his former team. So, I don't expect a big defensive effort from the Heat tonight. Jrue Holiday should have a clear upperhand on offense over Mario Chalmers and due to the fact that the Heat use small lineups, Spencer Hawes has a good spot to have a good offensive game in here as well.
We are in front of a low totals line and this is very dangerous considering Miami's offense. If we combine that with the poor effort that Miami will show on defense tonight and we have the right ingredients for us to take the Over in here. This is exactly what I'm going to do on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Over 185 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
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