NBA - 505 Sacramento Kings @ 506 Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Line: 199 points
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
Memphis has played five games since they got Tayshaun Prince and the signs are beginning to be positive. They remain an elite defensive elite, as they are creating turnovers, it's tough to score inside against them and if we exclude their game at Atlanta, all their opponents have been held below the 100 points mark. The reason for this optimism is related to their offense. With Rudy Gay, the Grizzlies's offense was very stagnant, the ball would go down low and a lot of time was wasted or Rudy Gay would get the ball to force some tough shots. Over their last three games, the Grizzlies's ball movement was much better than usual for them this season, as they dished 28, 26 and 30 assists! Memphis has already played 50 games this season and in just 11 of them they managed to have 26 or more assists. However, 3 of these 11 games were the team's last 3 games! Their playmakers are having the ball more and Marc Gasol is using his passing skills to help the team's offense to be effective, as he had dished 4, 5 and 8 assists on the team's last three games! Tayshaun Prince shot 8-8 FG in the team's last game and all these shots were the result of a good ball movement.
“The ball movement is getting contagious,” Coach Lionel Hollins said after the game. “Everybody is moving the ball. It's nice; giving goals to Zach, guys cutting. The whole team is just looking to make the extra pass and the extra play. When you make shots, the assists do pile up, but I think the willingness to pass is important, and we are doing that.”
Therefore, I don't believe Sacramento's defense will have weapons to stop Memphis's offense tonight. The Kings are prone to commit turnovers, they aren't a good defensive rebounding team, they are #26 in transition defense while allowing 1.21 PPP and their interior defense is also quite poor, as they have allowed 48, 50 and 60 points in the paint on their last three games. According to my numbers, Sacramento is allowing 76% FG at the rim over their last 10 games! 76% FG!!!
The Kings are coming from two nice home wins, mostly thanks to some great offense. Utah had no legs to hang with them, while Houston plays on an open style that has nothing to do with how the Grizzlies play. However, Sacramento's offense was aggressive by scoring 25 and 16 fast break points, while their backcourt were red hot from the outside, as they shot 8-19 and 11-20 3pts in these two games. They are coming to this game very confident on offense, something that has been rare this season.
This will be the third game between these two teams this season and in the first game, Memphis had their best offensive game of the season with 113 points scored and an offensive rating of 132.4! More recently, we had an ugly game between these two teams, with Memphis winning it by 85-69. That game was playing in special circumstances, as Memphis had lost their previous three games, with all those losses being by more than 20 points each! They were incredibly fired up for that game and this was why I took them on the first quarter spread on that contest:
“After losing at San Antonio on their last game, Memphis had a players meeting and they are fired up to bounce back tonight against the Kings. The aggressiveness from Memphis early on will surprise Sacramento, who won't be ready to hang with a fired up Grizzlies team at the start of the game. Therefore, I'll be taking Memphis on the first quarter spread tonight.”
Besides that, Zach Randolph didn't play in that game and he has been finally effective on offense once again lately. Today's game will be different, as we are in front of two teams that are coming from nice results and that they are playing with confidence on their offense. Therefore, I expect a high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over on this contest in a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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