NBA Free Premium Play 02/20: Orlando Magic @ Dallas Mavericks

Orlando  at Dallas

NBA - 717 Orlando Magic @ 718 Dallas Mavericks Projected Line: 210 points Orlando had another loss last night against Charlotte last night, where they showed no effort on defense during the first half. The trade rumors will certainly continue today and so, it is very hard to trust them on showing any focus on defense tonight as well. If the Bobcats were a tough matchup for Orlando due to their quick guards, good pick and roll ball handler numbers and high volume of transition plays, then what can we say about Dallas? The Mavericks are #5 in the league in pick and roll ball handler plays with 0.82 PPP and #4 in transition plays with 1.20 PPP, so we can say that Dallas is basically an (way) improved version of Charlotte right now, so they should give a lot of problems to Orlando tonight. Just look at their last four games prior to the All Star Break, where they scored 22, 29, 14 and 24 fast break points! On this particularly spot, with the Mavericks playing at home against a team on a back to back spot, Dallas's game plan has been very simple this season: run up and down the court to worn out their opponents. On this season, the Over is 7-3 every time an opponent plays at Dallas in a back to back spot, with the Mavericks averaging an amazing 22.6 fast break points per game on this specific spot! Against Orlando's poor defense, Dallas won't have problems in scoring in their run and gun style at home. They are rested and healthy, so they will simply run over the Magic tonight. However, I am expecting a better offensive performance from Orlando tonight in comparison to yesterday. Note that even though Orlando shot 41,6% FG, they still had 26 assists for a great 70.3% assist rate. The problem is that they simply missed too many wide open jump shots with 5-17 FG from 16-23 feet and 4-25 treys! We are talking about 9-42 FG from +16 feet! Their best three guards in Jameer Nelson, J.J. Redick and Arron Afflalo shot a combined of 3-20 from behind the line and this is unlikely to happen once again tonight, as these three players are solid jump shooters and so, they should bounce back tonight. The first game between these two teams ended with 216 points scored in a fast paced contest, where Dallas scored 22 fast break points and Orlando's top three guards all had decent offensive games. I expect something similar tonight, so I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717/718 Over 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker