NBA - 505 Sacramento Kings @ 506 Miami Heat
Projected Line: 215 points
Sacramento's defense is simply non-existent. I took Sacramento +7 on their last game at New Orleans by taking in account their edge in transition against the Hornets's poor defense and the truth is that the Kings scored 25 fast break points with 9-14 FG and 1.47 PPP! New Orleans has been also a poor perimeter defense throughout the whole season and Sacramento had a monster outside shooting game with 12-29 3pts! Still, Sacramento lost the game by 15 points! This was due to the fact that they got crushed on the boards, while Sacramento's frontcourt was completely outplayed by the Hornets. Robin Lopez and Anthony Davis combined to score 32 points on 15-25 FG, while grabbing a combined of 15 rebounds. At the same time, the Hornets's backcourt duo formed by Greivis Vasquez and Eric Gordon combined 21 assists between them! Sacramento with better offense lately has the ability to be more competitive, but it hasn't been easy due to their lack of defense.
The Kings will now play at Miami, who is currently on a roll with 11 straight wins, while winning on different ways. They aren't needing a full effort through 48 minutes to beat their opponents, especially when they face lowly teams. Their rebounding has been a problem for the, but this hasn't been a major factor on their games. After tonight's game, Miami will have a home game against Memphis, in a game that will certainly force them to have another level of focus and effort from the Heat.
We have Miami in here in a good physical spot, as they are currently on a home span and they had 1 day of rest prior to tonight's game. I don't see the Heat having a big effort or showing a lot of defensive focus tonight against the lowly Kings, especially considering Sacramento's incredible poor defense. The Kings had defensive ratings of 113.04, 117.41, 113.00, 127.56, 112.05, 131.88 and 126.47 on their last seven games for an average of 120.20! We are talking about a team that is allowing their opponents to shoot 70% FG at the rim and they have been also allowing their opponents to have some great 3pts numbers against them. This is simply the wrong time for the Kings to face the Heat's offense, who is God like mode with an average offensive rating of 123.01 over their last 10 games!
The question in here is to check if Sacramento can be minimally competitive and keep up on the score with the Heat's offense. And I believe they will be able to do that. Miami won't be focused on defense, Sacramento will have some edge on the offensive rebounding department, so they should be able to score a nice number of second chance points. Sacramento has been also having a great transition game with 22.5 fast break points per game over their last 7 games and this lack of effort from Miami will be felt on this specific area. The Kings will set a very fast pace on this contest and on the first game between these two teams earlier on the season at Sacramento, Miami scored 128 points in the best offensive performance by any team this season with a 147.2 offensive rating! I expect another very high scoring game between these two teams tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. As I expect Sacramento to keep themselves close on the score due to Miami's lack of defensive focus, I'll be taking the Kings in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 210,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
***ADDED PLAY***
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Sacramento Kings (+15,5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
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