NBA - 711 Milwaukee Bucks @ 712 Houston Rockets
Projected Line: Houston by 4 points
Milwaukee finally won a game down the stretch against a decent team last night! The game wasn't well played, with Milwaukee starting the game trailing in the score by 0-11, but they committed less turnovers than Dallas plus their had a superior second unit with J.J. Redick, Mike Dunleavy and Drew Gooden that outplayed the Mavericks's bench. For tonight, the Bucks will be playing on a back to back spot, but only one player had big minutes last night: Monta Ellis with 44 minutes. The second most used player against Dallas was Brandon Jennings with just 32 minutes. Houston isn't a team that can pound their opponents physically via rebounding, as they try to outplay their opponents with their speed, but that's something that Milwaukee also has in every position, as they are a very mobile team. Curiously, Milwaukee won't be an easy matchup for Houston, as even though the Rockets have more talent on their starting lineup than the Bucks, Milwaukee has a similar style to Houston and they have a better bench. James Harden and Jeremy Lin have been playing well on offense all season long and today won't be an exception, but the truth is that they don't defend well with poor effort, so Milwaukee's backcourt with Monta Ellis, Brandon Jennings, J.J. Redick and Mike Dunleavy can easily outshoot Houston's offense.
Defensively, Larry Sanders's presence is huge for Milwaukee, as he can really alter shots down low! This is why Milwaukee has one of the best rim defenses in the league with just 61% FG allowed! At the same time, due to their frontcourt's great mobility, the Bucks are also an elite unit on defending pick and roll ball handler plays by being #3 in the league with 0.72 PPP! Note also that Milwaukee is ranked #7 in the league on 3pts defense with 34.4% allowed, so they have in theory a great defense to do a great job against Houston's offense! The Rockets are one of the teams that attempt more shots at the rim and at the 3pts line, while their volume of pick and roll ball handler plays is also huge as well. However, the Bucks's defense are an elite team in all these areas! Of course Milwaukee struggles to defend transition plays and they are awful in defensive rebounding, however the Rockets aren't a good offensive rebounding team as expected (they play so small that they aren't miracles) by being #20 in the league with a 26% offensive rebound rate.
On the other side, Houston's defense is just terrible. If they had a decent defense, Houston would be one of the best teams in the league, but they aren't. They are #28 in the league on transition defense, while their perimeter defense is also quite good. Milwaukee can be dangerous because they play on a fast pace style and so, they are ready to play at Houston's very fast tempo without a problem. The Bucks's backcourt is dangerous, while their frontcourt with Ersan Ilyasova and Larry Sanders is perfect for this kind of games. Ilyasova is a stretch shooting PF, while Sanders is a very mobile center, so they can run up and down on the floor without any kind of problem.
On the first game between these two teams this season, Houston won at Milwaukee by 115-101 in a weird game. The Bucks were up by 58-47 at halftime, but they committed 25 turnovers and that was the key for their loss. Curiously, the Bucks have been one of the best teams in the league in avoiding turnovers with just 12.8 turnovers per game over their last six contests. Therefore, I expect them to be competitive in here and so, I'll be taking them in here.
NOTE: you can get MIL+9 @ Pinnacle Sports @ -111
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711 Milwaukee Bucks (+8,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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