Projected Line: 205 points
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
If it wasn't for the fact that Miami is also on a winning streak and Indiana would be the hottest team in the Eastern Conference right now. They are playing great basketball on both ends of the floor. If their defensive level isn't surprising at all, as Indiana's defense has been consistently great all season long and they are the #1 ranked defense in the league in several different defensive metrics, their offense has been surprisingly good lately. Paul George has emerged this season and he is showing some flashes of being an elite player and Indiana has been having excellent outside shooting numbers over their last 10 games! On the other hand, they have been also more efficient down low as well. Roy Hibbert has been awful offensively the whole season, but he shot 5-9, 4-5, 4-8 and 3-6 FG over the team's last four games! But what has been more impressive in the Pacers has been their commitment on defense, with defensive ratings of 97.51, 85.04, 91.29, 86.04 and 81.91 on their last five games! All games below below 100 points per 100 possessions! Stellar!
After having lost several games in a row, the Warriors have now won their last three games, in a very positive sign for a team that will have a very easy schedule until the end of the regular season with a heavy dose of home games. Jamal Crawford and J.R. Smith has been having some media attention to win the 6th Man of the Year award, but these two players have been very far from the consistency shown by Jarrett Jack, who was the MVP in the game against San Antonio at home and on their road game at Minnesota last Sunday, where he had 8-19 FG, 23 points, 8 assists and even 5 rebounds! Golden State defeated Indiana at home earlier on the season and guess what? The MVP of that game was also Jarrett Jack with 8-9 FG in just 25 minutes of action!
Looking at the way Indiana is currently playing on offense, they can easily win their games in both ways. They can shutdown their opponents on defense, but their offensive improvement has also allowed them to approach some games on a different way as well. During their winning streak, Indiana played in a faster pace than usually and they even scored 26 and 20 fast break points in two of these games, so Indiana will be comfortable today in playing in a potential fast paced contest today. This scenario of a semi run and gun game will happen tonight mostly due to the Warriors's game plan. Mark Jackson will have no other option in here but to push up the pace, if he wants Golden State to have any chance to be competitive tonight. Andrew Bogut is out for tonight's contest and so, Golden State doesn't have any interior big player available. Andris Biedrins is worthless on offense and even on defense, he got crushed by Minnesota's frontcourt last Sunday, something that made him play for just 12 minutes in that game. The rookie Festus Ezeli has also left the rotation, so Mark Jackson has no other option for tonight than giving big minutes to David Lee and Carl Landry, who will form an undersized frontcourt tonight. With such lineup on the floor, Golden State will have no other option but pushing up the ball in ever possession.
On their last game at Minnesota, the most used lineup of the Warriors in that game was David Lee, Carl Landry, Klay Thompson, Jarrett Jack and Stephen Curry! The Wolves took advantage of that to pound the Warriors down low with 62 points in the paint and with their starting frontcourt having monster number on offense: Nikola Pekovic 10-18 FG, Derrick Williams 9-15 FG and Andrei Kirilenko 5-10 FG, for a combined of 24-43 (56%) FG! I expect something similar tonight for Indiana with David West and even Roy Hibbert.
But the key factor in here will be to know what the Warriors's offense will be able to do against dominant Pacers defense. Indiana has a clear defensive weakness on pick and roll ball handler plays, where they are "just" ranked #18 with 0.79 PPP allowed. The reason for that is simple. Coach Vogel doesn't want to expose Hibbert's lack of foot speed by sending him away from the basket and that gives a lot of space to the ball handler after the screen. Golden State is a strong team on pick and rolls, especially with Jarrett Jack being in such great form right now. Golden State defeated Indiana at home early on the season and this was possible mostly to the performances of their guards: Stephen Curry had 7-14 FG, 20 points and 11 assists, while Jarrett Jack had 8-9 FG and 5 assists. This bad matchup for the Pacers's defense will allow Golden State to have a decent offensive outcome tonight.
Therefore, we will have a game tonight played at a good pace, with the Pacers's offense taking advantage of their size edge over the undersized Warriors, while Golden State's pick and rolls offense will have a good edge over the #1 defense in the league. Therefore, I see this game being a high scoring affair and so, I'll be taking the Over in here in a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 196 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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