NBA - 713 San Antonio Spurs @ 714 Chicago Bulls
Projected Line: 187 points | Chicago by 4 points
Chicago had 2 days of rest prior to this contest, while San Antonio will be playing their third game in four nights, while being also on a back to back spot, as they played in Brooklyn last night. This is obviously a tough spot for the Spurs tonight and I believe there are three factors that really make the Spurs's job for tonight even tougher. First of all, Tony Parker is likely to have a letdown tonight. He played 35 minutes over his team's last two games and even though that doesn't seem like a lot, it is a lot considering the intensity that he has been showing on these games. Second of all, San Antonio has been terrible on rebounding without Tim Duncan by grabbing 43.6%, 44.9%, 41.2% and 41.4% of the rebounds on their last 4 games! The Spurs also allowed 12, 12, 15 and 12 offensive rebounds on these contests. Considering Chicago's great offensive rebounding skills (#3 in the league with 30.2%), the Spurs are going to get pounded on the boards battle tonight. Finally, Chicago's spot up defense is excellent. Even with Tony Parker requiring extra attention, San Antonio's shooters won't have the space that they had yesterday against the Nets, as Chicago's defense is perfect on the close outs to the outside. This is why they are #1 on spot up defense and #3 on 3pts allowed with just 33.8% 3pts!
The Bulls are coming from a game at Utah, where the game pace was 80.83! On the other hand, San Antonio is also coming from a super slow paced game at Brooklyn and therefore, I really expect this game to be a slow paced game as well. With the Bulls dominating the rebounds and grabbing a good number of offensive rebounds, they will dominate the tempo of the game and prevent the Spurs's transition game to be effective tonight. At the same time, we know that the Bulls's offense isn't good. They pass the ball very well, but their shooting is poor due to lack of shooting skills. San Antonio's defense is quite good and they are #2 on 3pts% allowed! The Bulls have just scored 4, 9, 6 and 4 fast break points on their last four games, in a clear sign that they simply don't run with the basketball.
San Antonio was involved recently in some fast paced games (excluding yesterday's game against Brooklyn), but they have been facing teams who generally play at a fast pace: Dallas is #5 on pace factor, Phoenix #11, Charlotte #14, Washington #13, Minnesota #12 and Detroit #22 (but playing much faster nowadays due to their recent trade). On the other hand, Chicago is just #27 in the league in pace factor and therefore, I really expect this contest to be a slow paced game. I expect both teams's good defense will make a good job tonight, so I'll be taking the Under in here. I also believe the Bulls have a good spot and the necessary matchup edges on defense and rebounding to get a nice win tonight and so, I'll be taking them on the moneyline in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 191 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
***ADDED PLAY***
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 714 Chicago Bulls ML @ -125 / 1.80 on 5Dimes
No comments:
Post a Comment