NBA - 507 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 508 Utah Jazz
Projected Line: 205 points
Oklahoma City will face Miami at home next Thursday and considering the importance of that game for them (revenge from NBA Finals + their loss at Miami earlier on this season), they aren't in a great "mindset" spot tonight. Anyway, the Thunder are currently playing at an incredible level in both ends of the floor. They are hitting their outside shots on offense with 40.6% 3pts on their last 10 games and 44.6% 3pts on their last 5 games, while they are also shooting 73% FG at the rim on their last 10 games, with their transition game also demolishing their opponents, as they have scored 24, 25, 20, 30 and 20 fast break points in five of their last six games. Russell Westbrook has won NBA Player of the Week award without playing in the fourth quarter in every single game last week - this says it all about OKC's recent level of play.
Utah has been very inconsistent lately. They are missing Mo Williams and especially Gordon Hayward badly, who is their best playmaker coming off the bench. Of course Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap have big games here and there, but without a consistent outside shooting, the Jazz's offense is simply too one-dimensional. Only Randy Foye has been consistent and he really has to put some great offensive numbers because defensively his lack of speed is a huge problem for the team. Utah really didn't have any chance on their last game at Sacramento, as they were tired and Sacramento ran them out of the gym. Now they had 2 days off to rest for this game, so we can expect them to be super aggressive tonight.
The Jazz have been struggling big time in stopping the transition game of their opponents. They are #15 in transition defense for the season with 1.13 PPP allowed, but due to Jamaal Tinsley playing big minutes lately and without Gordon Hayward, they have now a slow backcourt and so, they have allowed 1.24 PPP on transitions over their last 10 games! It wasn't a surprise to see Milwaukee scoring 25 fast break points against them or Sacramento scoring 25 fast break points on their last game as well. If we add the fact that they are #30 on spot up defense and #26 on pick and roll ball handler defense, we can quickly come to the conclusion that they will have a very tough job in defending the Thunder tonight. Russell Westbrook will have a huge matchup edge over Jamaal Tsinley, while nobody can defend Kevin Durant! Kevin Martin will play tonight, so we will have the Thunder at their best tonight.
On the other hand, I believe the Jazz will be very aggressive tonight. They will feed their big men on the inside, where they will cause problems to Oklahoma City. Paul Millsap has a good shooting range and this will cause problems to Serge Ibaka, while Al Jefferson's post up skills will be a tough matchup for Kendrick Perkins. I also expect Utah to have nice free throws numbers tonight, as when they play at home on a rested spot, they have a FT rate of 25.0, while their second average is 22.9! Oklahoma City's mindset for tonight will be to outscore Utah, as they have been having no problems in winning their games lately and they are already thinking about their game against Miami next Thursday, so they won't play tonight with an aggressive defensive mindset and with that, this should be a very high scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Over 200 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment