NBA Free Premium Play 02/12: Denver Nuggets @ 502 Toronto Raptors

Denver  at Toronto

NBA - 501 Denver Nuggets @ 502 Toronto Raptors Projected Line: Toronto by 1 point Boston paid the price yesterday of a brutal but exciting game last Sunday against Denver. The Nuggets aren't in such a terrible spot for today, as they are a younger team than the Celtics, with more depth and they also had 1 day to rest. Denver managed to make a nice late comeback at Boston by sending the game to overtime. As expected, the Nuggets had a great edge on transitions with 22 fast break points scored and grabbed 56% of the rebounds, however Boston forced 21 turnovers, so the Nuggets have turned the ball over more than 20 times in each of their last two games! George Karl's rotations have been solid and Denver's second unit has been playing at a high level, as all their starters ended the game with negative +/- team points, while the four backups had all positive net numbers! This new look Raptors team is yet to show great chemistry, but they are learning how to play with each other fast. Toronto with Rudy Gay has been competitive in every game so far, excluding their game against Miami, where they had Kyle Lowry and Amir Johnson in foul trouble for the whole second half. If we exclude that game, the Raptors were always competitive and against some decent teams such as the Clippers, Boston, Indiana and on their last game against New Orleans. The loss of Jose Calderon and the arrival of Rudy Gay turned the Raptors into an explosive team on the wings with Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Rudy Gay. They are now a more athletic team and today's game against the Nuggets will be interesting because of that, as we will watch a battle between two very explosive teams on the wings! I don't know if it's because of this new style, but it's also important to note that Toronto has been dominating completely on the rebounds by grabbing 53.64%, 55.78%, 54.66%, 54.53% and 56.29% of the rebounds on their last five games! With the Raptors being explosive and a good rebounding team, they are suddenly a team that can hang around with the potent Nuggets on these areas! So, no wonder the books made the Nuggets just a 2 points favorite for this contest! The Raptors are also forcing a lot of turnovers to their opponents, as they have a lot of explosive players on the backcourt, especially Kyle Lowry, who has been very good in putting pressure on the opposing ball handler. Another important aspect of the Raptors lately has been their transition defense, as they are just #18 on transition defense for the season while allowing 1.14 PPP, but they have just allowed an awesome 0.91 PPP on their last 5 games, while allowing just 6, 8,10, 6 and 7 fast break points to their opponents in those games. It's important to note that the Clippers and Miami scored just 6 and 8 fast break points respectively against the Raptors and this says a lot on how good they have been in transition defense lately. All these components that I've mentioned are the keys to be competitive against the Nuggets, so Toronto has everything they need to be very competitive in tonight's game. I believe Denver will still be in hangover moment and just like Toronto, they struggle to close outs games. They are unable to make clutch plays down the stretch and with this game being tight, I believe Denver will struggle a lot, as we are dealing with the worst FT shooting team in the league. I believe the Raptors are an excellent home underdog tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Toronto Raptors (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker