Projected Line: Miami by 15 points
Lebron James is playing at an incredible level right now and when that happens, it's very hard to beat Miami especially at home. On their last game, the Lakers actually played really well, with Kobe Bryant making the right decisions quite often with sharp passes and nice shots on isolation plays when he had a favorable matchup especially against Ray Allen. Earl Clark was great in both ends of the floor and the Lakers's offense were aggressive by attempting 26 free throws! The key factor for them throughout the game was their ability in not committing turnovers and limit Miami's transition game in that way. However, the Lakers's offense went missing in action in the fourth quarter. Kobe Bryant's isolation plays over Ray Allen caused the Lakers's offense to lose its flow and Miami adjusted on defense by double teaming Kobe at the right time, causing the Lakers to start turning the ball over, allowing Miami to finally start pounding the Lakers on transitions. With the Heat crushing on the boards and finally causing turnovers, they comfortably secured their win. For today, the Heat will face the Blazers at home, but their final game of the first half of the season for them will be at Oklahoma City next Thursday. So, will they be motivated tonight?
Portland is coming from a loss in Orlando where they didn't have legs to compete. They are completely without gas right now, their road trip continues tonight and with their starters always having to play heavy minutes, as they don't have any depth on their roster, the Blazers aren't being able to handle that anymore. That was clearly on the boards battle against the Magic, as Orlando grabbed 60% of the rebounds, while outrebounding the Blazers by 17-5 in the offensive glass! At the same time, Portland's interior defense was a complete disaster, with the Magic scoring 60 points in the paint, while shooting 27-39 (69%) FG at the rim! All frontcourt players from Orlando had a nice game: Nikola Vucevic 8-12 FG, 17 points and 19 rebounds, Andrew Nicholson 5-9 FG and 5 rebounds and Gustavo Ayon 8-14 FG, 16 points and 11 rebounds! The Blazers's backcourt defense also couldn't handle the Magic's ball handlers, as Orlando shot 9-15 FG and had 1.27 PPP on cuts! Even though this defensive disaster, the Blazers managed to be competitive in the game thanks to a good offensive game with 50.6% FG, 10-27 3pts and 31 assists! That's remarkable considering Damian Lillard had a terrible game with 1-16 FG! If we don't count Lillard, the remaining of the Blazers's team shot 42-67 (63%) FG! This also shows that Orlando is having no effort on defense right now. The Blazers will now play at Miami and this will be the first time this season that they are double digits underdog in a game!
For tonight's game, Portland doesn't have a great spot, as they are continuing their road trip and their starters keep playing heavy minutes in every game, as it happened on their last game at Orlando, where LaMarcus Aldridge played 38 minutes, Nicolas Batum 39 minutes, J.J. Hickson 31 minutes, Damian Lillard 40 minutes and Wesley Matthews 36 minutes. With their poor defense and poor rebounding, if Portland can't have great offensive numbers, they quickly fall into a hole in the scoreboard. This is a revenge game for Miami, as they lost at Portland one month ago by 90-92, after blowing a 12 points lead with eight minutes to go.
Miami's offense with Lebron James at an insane form will have no problems in crushing a poor Blazers defense that has no physical presence down low and has a weak perimeter defense. On the other hand, a focused Heat team with revenge on their minds should easily limit Portland's offense, especially when they have already faced them earlier on the season, so they know what kind of opponent they will be facing today. Therefore, I see no other result in here but an easy blowout win for the Heat and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 Miami Heat (-11.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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