NBA - 513 Utah Jazz @ 514 Los Angeles Clippers
Projected Line: 204 points | LA Clippers by 5 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
The Clippers were humiliated at home against San Antonio. They weren't ready for the adjustments that the Spurs made and they couldn't stop San Antonio's offense, while their own offense was a mess, with no flow whatsoever. They committed 20 turnovers, while Chris Paul had possibly his worst performance that I remember from him in years, with 1-6 FG, 4 points, 3 assists and 3 turnovers. For tonight, we can expect the Clippers to come very aggressive from the start of the game. During the current season, everytime they lost a game while being favored, they went 9-4 Over in the following game and 8-2 Over when they are favored in those games. Now facing a Jazz's super slow starting backcourt, the Clippers will have a clear edge with Chris Paul on the pick and rolls. Utah's defense is #27 on pick and roll ball handler defense with 0.85 PPP allowed and their perimeter defense is also quite poor. This will be the fourth and last game between these two teams during the regular season and the Clippers had offensive ratings of 113.3, 120.8 and 116.4 on the first three games against Utah!
The key in here will be Utah's performance tonight and I expect them to be very competitive. The Jazz had a phase where their offense was very stagnant. They were struggling on transitions and the pace of their games was very slow. According to my numbers, they had a sequence of 14 games where their pace factor averaged just 87.64! The main reasons for that was coach Corbin giving too many minutes to players like Marvin Williams, Randy Foye and Jamaal Tinsley, old backcourt players who had no explosion, so they would slow down the pace. To make things worse for them at the time, their best offensive player in the backcourt, Gordon Hayward, was injured. However, since their loss at Sacramento, coach Corbin decided to start giving more minutes to players like DeMarre Carroll and Alec Burks, while Gordon Hayward also recovered from his injury. Utah suddenly became more explosive and they also started playing on a faster pace, where their superior depth has been allowing them to outplay their opponents. On their last four games, Jamaal Tinsley averaged just 19.5 minutes per game, Randy Foye 25.5 minutes and Marvin Williams 19 minutes, well below their season averages. This made Utah's pace factor to go way up: 96.88, 91.10, 94.43 and 91.24 on their last four games!
I expect this more athletic version of the Jazz to hang around with the Clippers. Even though this series is 3-0 for the Clippers right now, both games played at Utah were close contests with the LA team winning them by 1 and 2 points! The Clippers won the other game at home by 107-96, but this game was also close until the fourth quarter. Utah's skilled frontcourt is a problem for the Clippers, especially in the matchup between Al Jefferson and DeAndre Jordan, as Jefferson's post up skills outplay Jordan's lack of patient to defend him. This is why "Big Al" shot 8-17 FG, 7-17 FG and 13-22 FG on his team's first three games against the Clippers this season for a combined of 28-56 (50%) FG! The Clippers's post up defense hasn't been good lately, so Utah will have a nice offensive edge in here to explore. Utah has been a terrible road team this season, but I believe that we are in front of an improved team with more toughness and athleticism, something essential for a team to stay competitive against the Clippers. I expect a fast paced game like it happened in the previous games between these two teams this season, with a lot of free throws to both teams and with the Jazz being competitive throughout the whole contest. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play and Utah in a Single Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 513/514 Over 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
***ADDED PLAY***
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 Utah Jazz (+9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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