NBA - 711 Brooklyn Nets @ 712 Milwaukee Bucks
Projected Line: 190 points | PK line
This is a rematch from last night's game in Brooklyn, where the Nets won in overtime. Brooklyn dominated the boards battle last night in another poor rebounding game from the Bucks and the boards battle is one of the keys on a back to back spot! Both Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings had monster games last night, with Jennings scoring 16 points during the third quarter! However, these two players were on the court for 48 and 49 minutes, so they are unlikely to play well tonight, especially when Jennings is shooting 34.3% FG on back to back games this season! In fact, Milwaukee is 3-9 ATS on back to back games this season, with 1-6-1 ATS in home games. They depend too much on jump shots in order to perform well on tough spots.
Brooklyn also heavily used their players yesterday as well. Joe Johnson and Deron Williams played 44 minutes each, but the difference from the Bucks is that Brooklyn has more weapons to work offensively on the down. Brook Lopez didn't actually have a good game yesterday with 6-17 FG in 34 minutes, but both Kris Humphries and Andray Blatche played well. In fact, the Nets's bench outplayed the Bucks's second unit with more minutes and especially better production while outscoring them by 44-15!
As yesterday's game was a super competitive contest played on half court, I don't believe that the Bucks will suddenly set a faster pace tonight or that Brooklyn would even accept that. The game yesterday had a pace of 87, with the Bucks scoring just 4 fast break points and shooting just 2-5 FG in transitions. So, I expect a slow paced game tonight as well. On this kind of conditions, I trust much more Brooklyn than Milwaukee due to better rebounding, a better second unit and also better post up players. I expect this game to be once again quite close and if I had to make one of the teams favorite for tonight's game, I would actually pick Brooklyn. Therefore, I'll be taking the Nets plus the points in here. As I expect another slow paced game and with Milwaukee's offense struggling this time, I'll be taking the Under in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Under 194 @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711 Brooklyn Nets (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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