NBA - 815 San Antonio Spurs @ 816 Brooklyn Nets
Projected Line: 190 points
San Antonio is coming from their worst defensive game of the season at Detroit, where they allowed the Pistons to score 119 points, while having a 130 offensive rating! Their second worst defensive game was against the Clippers, where they allowed the LA team to have a 118.9 offensive rating. That's a difference of more than 10 points per possession! Of course San Antonio didn't have the right mindset for that game. They showed no effort and they thought that they would comfortably beat the lowly Pistons anyway. However, I actually believe the Spurs got surprised with this new look of Detroit, just like I had mentioned in yesterday's recap of the game
The good news for San Antonio is that they won't get surprised today against Brooklyn. We all know that the Nets like to play at a slow pace due to the fact that they have a lot of slow footed players. They like to play on half court sets, but they have been struggling late on their offensive execution. In fact, they are just averaging a 96.33 offensive rating over their last 5 games! Their A/TO ratios also show the problems that the Nets's offense has been having on their ball movement: 23/20, 20/19, 19/18, 16/17, 22/14 against the Lakers and 17/15 on their last game! The Spurs's defense is generally quite disciplined and they should be able to do a good job tonight against the Nets's stagnant offense.
On the other side, San Antonio's offense is currently missing their best playmaker coming off the bench and their best post up players. They are currently very dependent on what Tony Parker is able to do and their opponents are starting to put an extra player on him. Brooklyn is an elite team in defending pick and rolls (#4 in the league with 0.72 PPP allowed), so this is going to be a tough matchup for Parker. I expect this contest to be a slow paced game, with both teams being in a bounce back mode and ready to take advantage of the considerable edges they will have on defense. Therefore, I expect a low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 815/816 Under 194,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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