NBA - 509 Phoenix Suns @ 510 Los Angeles Lakers
Projected Line: LA Lakers by 6 points
The Lakers are finally returning home tonight! However, their spot isn't good at all. They had just 1 day off and they are coming from Miami, where they played last Sunday. They are also coming from two games against the Heat and the Bobcats, where they made a huge effort! Mike D'Antoni used just an 8-man rotation in those games and so, the Lakers's starters played heavy minutes. Dwight Howard isn't at his best right now, but he was forced to play 41 and 38 minutes, while all starters played more than 35 minutes! The LA team has been struggling to play good basketball for 48 minutes. Their in-game consistency has been a big problem and this is related to their lack of fresh legs. They had a normal letdown at Miami down the stretch, while at Charlotte they were down by 20 points early on the game! They won at Detroit and Brooklyn, but they had big leads that they wasted as well. Their rebounding has been terrible, as they have grabbed just 46.59%, 38.57%, 48.98%, 48.48% and 42.87% of the rebounds on their last 5 games. Dwight Howard just can't control the whole paint on his own like he used to do in Orlando and with the Lakers's backcourt giving little help, their opponents have been pounding the Lakers in the boards battle.
Phoenix is coming from two games where they got crushed by Oklahoma City! The Thunder are playing at such a level right now that the Suns had no chances in both ends of the floor. Phoenix depends a lot from Goran Dragic's pick & rolls and drives to the basket, but Oklahoma City's defense allowed him just 2-7 FG and 4 assists in the second game, after having allowing 8-15 FG and 6 assists in the first contest. This isn't a surprise, as the Thunder's defense is #3 in pick and roll ball handler defense and #2 in pick and roll roll man defense! Fortunately for Phoenix, the Lakers's defense is very far from having the level that the Thunder's defense possesses in this area. The Lakers have been struggling a lot in avoiding dribble penetrations from the opposing guards, while their transition defense hasn't been better. Therefore, I expect Phoenix to have a solid offensive game tonight.
I believe the Lakers will have some good moments on this game, but they won't be able to sustain the same level of effort for the whole game, especially on a poor spot for them. Therefore, I expect Phoenix to turn this game into a competitive one and so, I'll be taking them tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 Phoenix Suns (+9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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