NBA - 709 Dallas Mavericks @ 710 Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Lines: 192 points | Memphis by 11 points
Dallas played at home against the Lakers on Sunday afternoon and then, they also faced Milwaukee at home last night. The Mavericks finally ended their home span, where they had favorable spots in playing home games against teams that were mostly lowly teams and sometimes even on a poor back to back spot. Dallas took advantage of that, but as soon as they faced decent teams like Atlanta, the Lakers and Milwaukee, things were different. As usual, their in-game inconsistency was a problem for them. They started yesterday's game against Milwaukee with a 11-0 run, just to lose that advantage on the score shortly after, while they were also up by 88-83 with 3 minutes to go, just to allow a 2-13 run to Milwaukee to close the game. The Mavericks struggled once again on turnovers, while their poor rebounding was hidden in most of these games due to Dallas having a physical edge in almost every game of this span! Yesterday Dirk Nowitzki was excellent with 20 rebounds and 8-16 FG for 21 points! What made the Mavericks lose last night was their second unit getting outplayed by the Bucks, besides the usual problem with turnovers and a poor outside shooting game with 1-17 3pts!
I don't believe Dallas will be able to handle their poor spot for tonight and so, they will crushed by the improved Grizzlies. Dallas's defensive rebounding problems and turnover issues will be completely exposed by Memphis, who is an elite area in these two areas! Dirk had a monster effort against Milwaukee last night and I doubt he will able to produce such effort tonight as well against Zach Randolph! Even though we are talking about a small sample, Dirk had 34.8% FG, 13.7ppg and 5.3 rpg on the three back to back games that he has already played this season!
We know that Dallas's offense relies on the speed of their guards. They are an elite transition offensive team, but Memphis's defense is #7 in the league on transition plays with 1.10 PPP allowed, even though they have regressed on this area a bit since the Rudy Gay trade. On the last game between these two teams, Dallas crushed Memphis by 104-83, in a game where the Grizzlies were on a back to back spot, after having played a very important game against San Antonio in the previous night that went to overtime. A letdown in the following game against the Mavericks was inevitable and this is why I took Dallas in that game. Memphis certainly remembers of this loss and so, I expect them to get revenge tonight.
Memphis with Tayshaun Prince has been having great offensive games every time they face fast paced teams. Of course that when they play half court games, like they did at Brooklyn or at Toronto, they show some stellar defense, but against fast paced teams like Sacramento, Detroit or Minnesota, they have nice offensive numbers. I believe the same will happen tonight, with the Grizzlies forcing a lot of turnovers that will result in an easy transition points for them. Memphis will also have a big edge down low over Dallas's poor interior defense and that will allow them to have a big offensive game tonight. I expect the Grizzlies to have an easy win tonight on a great offensive performance from them, therefore I'll be taking both the Grizzlies and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 710 Memphis Grizzlies (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker (ALREADY RELEASED)
***ADDED PLAY***
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Over 187 @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline
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