NBA - 813 San Antonio Spurs @ 814 Phoenix Suns
Projected Line: 193 points
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
We are in presence of a totals line completely way off the right number, if we have in account the circumstances around this game. San Antonio will be far from their best on this game. This will be their final game of the Rodeo trip, the fourth game in six days, with all of them being on the road, so they had to travel for every single game! To make things worse for them, their last game at Golden State went to overtime and we had their key players Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green all playing around 40 minutes! The effort on that game was so big that Tony Parker will rest and won't play in today's game and he has been a monster lately with some huge offensive performances.
While watching the Spurs game at Golden State, it was interesting to see that San Antonio pretty much didn't attempt to run with the Warriors. They ended the game with just 2 fast break points score and a total of just 6 points scored in transition plays with 1-6 FG and 5% volume! This is a clear indicator that San Antonio wasn't in great physical condition for that game and so, the same will surely happen tonight as well. On the other hand, Phoenix is coming from two terrible defensive games at Golden State and then at home against Boston. They allowed offensive ratings above 120 to these two opponents and their defensive effort against Boston was just ridiculous, especially considering the Celtics were playing without Kevin Garnett. The good thing for the Suns is that their coach Lindsey Hunter is a tough guy and he was very mad at the lack of effort from his team on their last game.
"That is totally unacceptable, coaching wise and player wise," Hunter ranted. "The way we performed tonight, that cannot happen. I know people say all the time you cannot coach effort. I disagree because I am responsible and I feel like if I got to coach effort then that is what I have to do. Whatever we have to do, whatever method, it will be done," he continued. "If guys [in the rotation] think they are entitled, then they won't play. If we have to pull guys out for not making rotations, then we will shuffle the deck until we find guys that are going to do what we have to do. Simple as that. I guarantee you we will change or we will be practicing until they kick us out of the gym. Disrespectful, that's what I take that as. Just being disrespected.
It looks like Michael Beasley will be losing minutes in the rotation to one of the Morris brothers. This expected big effort from Phoenix after the Spurs on a bad spot, make me believe that the Suns will have a decent defensive performance tonight. On the other side, Phoenix's offense is really ugly to watch, as they are struggling on their outside shooting and they will be facing a San Antonio's defense that has been absolutely terrific during the Rodeo trip by averaging a defensive rating of 105.8, with just one poor game at Detroit, where they allowed 119 points and a 130.8 offensive rating. If we remove that game, the Spurs's average defensive rating during their road trip goes down to an even more stellar 102.3!
I don't believe this game will be played under a fast pace, as San Antonio is too tired to want that and Phoenix has been playing at a slower pace under Hunter's leadership. If we combined the bad spot of the Spurs's offense with their good defense plus the Suns's weak offense, we have an excellent combination for this game to give us a huge edge on the Under and therefore, I'll be taking it in here on a rare Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 813/814 Under 201,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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