Projected Line: 190 points | Brooklyn by 8 points
Milwaukee was one of the teams that was needing the All Star Break the most. They had lost 4 of their last 5 games and their only win was at home against a shorthanded Sixers team by just two points! Not good! The key for this bad run has been Larry Sanders's absence, who is their only decent frontcourt player. The good news is that Sanders is likely to play tonight, as even though he will be a game-time decision against the Nets tonight, he said that he has "70-30" odds to play! Besides that, there are some trade rumors involving some Bucks's players. It is being reported that the Bucks are interested in J.J. Redick, while Brandon Jennings has been also involved in trade rumors. It is being reported that the Bucks are interested in J.J. Redick, while Brandon Jennings has been also involved in trade rumors. Also there are rumors about a trade involving Monta Ellis going to Atlanta for Josh Smith. So, Milwaukee is also having to deal with off-court distractions. They need Larry Sanders to comeback at a good level to boost their defensive efficiency, while Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings need to be consistent! The good news is that the Bucks's starting backcourt has a good matchup tonight against Brooklyn. We know that Deron Williams and Joe Johnson are big slow footed guards, so Ellis's and Jennings's quickness is the main reason why Milwaukee is 2-0 against Brooklyn this season: they shot 8-13 FG and 8-19 FG on the first game against the Nets, while in the second game they shot 7-14 FG and 9-15 FG. By the way, the Nets's loss on their second game against the Bucks was the last straw that caused Avery Johnson to get fired.
Brooklyn was humiliated at home against San Antonio by getting scored 29-60 in the second half. But then, even without Deron Williams, they managed to make a nice bounce back and beat Indiana on the road and then defeat Denver at home on their last game before the All Star Break. Deron Williams is probable for tonight and he told reporters yesterday that he is playing tonight. However, he doesn't know how many minutes. The week off has helped him, but not a lot. As Rod Boone tweeted, "Deron hasn't been able to jump off his left leg with any explosion this season. Said he can't dunk off it. Needs to jump off both to dunk." Moreover, Boone reported, "Deron said he feels a little bit better today than he did this time last week. Not a big change, though." Mike Mazzeo added that "D-Will says he really needs more rest, but there's no time. Said he feels a little better after prp." This will be a home-home back to back series, as these two teams will face each other once again tomorrow, but this time at Milwaukee. It's important to check Brooklyn's mental toughness levels for tonight, as they clearly lost their first two games against Milwaukee this season. The Bucks play at a completely different style from the Nets, as while Brooklyn operates mainly in the halfcourt, the Bucks are a fast paced team. We will have in here the Bucks's speed versus the Nets's height/power/slowness. In the first two games, the Nets couldn't adapt to this matchup. Have they learnt the lesson and will they be more competitive tonight?
The first two games between these two teams were fast paced games (94 pace factor for both games), so the games were played Milwaukee's way and this explains a lot the final score. Brooklyn's average pace this season is 86.93, but their two games against the Bucks had a pace of 94! In the first game, Brook Lopez didn't play and this was a huge handicap for the Nets, as Andray Blatche, Reggie Evans and Kris Humphries shot just a combined of 7-18 (39%) FG! With no presence down low, the Nets was a jump shooting team, but with 7-25 (28%) 3pts, their offense sucked. On defense, Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings had big games, with Milwaukee being sharp in transition with 16 fast break points, while shooting 6-10 FG on transitions with 1.29 PPP. In the second game, Brooklyn was on a terrible spot, as they were playing their third game in four nights, while they were also on a back to back spot. They had lost at home against Boston on Christmas Day and they were at the time on their worst moment of the season that made Avery Johnson getting fired after this game. They got crushed by the Bucks, who had 3 days off to rest and prepare this game. Brook Lopez played against the Bucks this time and he simply crushed them with 9-18 FG, 21 points, 10 rebounds and 3 blocks in 29 minutes! Once again, it was the Nets's poor outside shooting (4-21 3pts and 6-20 FG from 16-23 feet) that made them lose the game. On a fast paced game, the tired Nets got ran over by the Bucks's quick backcourt, who also shot 10-17 3pts, while their transition looked great again with 19 fast break points. Also note that Brooklyn was playing without Deron Williams.
For tonight's game, we will finally have a healthy Nets facing the Bucks! Deron Williams hasn't been physically at 100% this season, but there won't be a time of the season where he will be fresher than today! I doubt that the Nets will fall in the same trap of playing a run and gun game against Milwaukee. The first two games against the Bucks had a game pace of 94, but on their last game against Denver (119-108), the final score might indicate that it was a run and gun game, but it wasn't as the pace was just 87.30! So, I really believe the Nets won't be running with the Bucks tonight, something that will cause a lot of problems to Milwaukee's offense that struggles on half court sets.
Milwaukee's two main strengths on offense this season have been their pick and roll ball handler plays and transitions, however they have been struggling on these two areas over their last 10 games! I don't know if Larry Sanders's absence has caused this or not, but the truth is that they dynamic hasn't been the same lately. Their season average on pick and roll ball handler plays is 0.77 PPP, but they had just 0.65 PPP on their last 10 games, while their season average on transitions is 1.15 PPP, but they have regressed to just 1.00 PPP on their last 10 contests! With the Nets turning tonight's game into a halfcourt game and with the Bucks struggling in being efficient on their transitions, Milwaukee's two main edges that they had on their first two games against Brooklyn are now gone.
On the other side, we have Brook Lopez who will dominate tonight. Even if Larry Sanders returns tonight, it won't be 100% healthy plus Lopez dominated a healthy Sanders on the last game between these two teams, so I believe Lopez will crush the Bucks down low tonight. This will be the key for an easy Nets win tonight, who will be fired up for this contest. Also note that we will have a back to back game between these two teams tomorrow at Milwaukee, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucks simply give up in the middle of tonight's contest if they get down on the score and start thinking about getting revenge at home in the following day. As I expect this game to be played at a much slower pace than in the first two games between these two teams and with the Bucks struggling on offense, I'll be taking both the Nets and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 195 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 506 Brooklyn Nets (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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