NBA - 709 New Orleans Hornets @ 710 Detroit Pistons
Projected Line: Detroit by 8 points
I liked what I saw from Detroit on their win against San Antonio, so I didn't hesitate in taking them +7 at Milwaukee in the following day, even though they were on a back to back and on a potential letdown spot. In fact, after a nice first half, Detroit looked flat early on the third quarter, Milwaukee was up by 72-62 with a minute to go on the third quarter and for anyone who has been following the Pistons this season, they would automatically give up on the game and accept the loss. But that didn't happen this time, as Jose Calderon led the Pistons to a nice comeback and eventually won the game down the stretch!
It seems like Coach Lawrence Frank has set the rotations after the trade and the Pistons are now playing on a 8-man rotation, with everybody knowing their current role. They are now playing on a more uptempo style than before the trade, with Rodney Stuckey playing some minutes at the SF position! They have been very efficient on this style, as they have scored 22, 20, 22, 17, 15 and 17 fast break points on their last six games! The key player on this change has been Jose Calderon, who knows how to lead a team by slowing down the game if necessary or making the right passes for the open guys especially down low. Greg Monroe has been very inconsistent this season (shooting just 49.2% FG this season), but he has suddenly started posting some monster numbers by having 10-16 FG, 9-16 FG and 6-12 FG plus 10, 16 and 13 rebounds on the team's last three games!
Detroit has been improving their efficiency on pick and roll ball handler plays also thanks to Jose Calderon, while they are also crushing their opponents in transition plays! The good news for them tonight is that the Hornets's defense has been awful in defending transitions by allowing 1.22 PPP, so no wonder that their last opponents who have their mindset in scoring in transition have done exactly that against them: Denver scored 32 fast break points against them, Atlanta 25 points and even Toronto scored 16 fast break points against them yesterday! Besides this, New Orleans has also been struggling on pick and roll ball handler defense the whole season, so Detroit's offense has a great chance to have some great numbers tonight.
So, the question in here will be to know if New Orleans's offense will be at their best tonight and I don't think so. They will play their third game in four nights, while being also on a back to back spot, with all these games being played on the road. Eric Gordon is unlikely to play tonight and their best guard Greivis Vasquez is coming from two good games in a row, so it will be tough for him to play once again very well tonight, on such a poor spot and after having made a big effort on the team's last two contest. Detroit is currently playing their best basketball of the season and they have in the Hornets a favorable matchup. If we add to this New Orleans's poor spot for tonight, I can only expect Detroit to have an easy win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 710 Detroit Pistons (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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