NBA Free Premium Play 02/26: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Phoenix Suns

Minnesota  at Phoenix

NBA - 513 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 514 Phoenix Suns Projected Line: Minnesota by 3 points Even though they lost one more time, Minnesota showed some good moments of basketball against Golden State on their last game. Their problem keeps being their poor decisions down the stretch and especially the fact that they can't hit a 3 pointer to save their lives, something that puts them as the worst 3pts shooting team in the league by far. The good news is that Ricky Rubio is looking amazing lately, as he is looking far more explosive and his overall numbers have improved in both ends of the floor. Over the past five games, Rubio has averaged 14.2 points, 9.2 assists, 6.2 rebounds and 4.6 steals per game. The Wolves have been +17 in Rubio's 174 minutes of floor time during this span and -23 in the 66 minutes where he was at the bench. Nikola Pekovic is also looking better physically, after being banged up for a lot of time, while Andrei Kirilenko has also returned at the lineup after an injury. Thanks to all of this, the Wolves are now a more competitive team lately. Phoenix is coming from a home loss at San Antonio, but they showed more effort in that game than in their previous contests. They never surrendered even though they were down in the score early on the second quarter and that's already something new and good for them. Phoenix's current top goal is to develop young players. The Morris Brothers played almost 20 minutes each and they brought a lot of energy to the team. They combined 5 offensive rebounds, more than the whole team of the Spurs had in that game, while Coach Hunter is rewarding the players who play hard on the court and not players like Michael Beasley, who was on the court for just 3 minutes against the Spurs! For this game, we have two teams in different levels right now. Minnesota is now more healthy with Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic and Andrei Kirilenko and so, they feel that they can win games, while Phoenix is currently living with a lot of uncertainty in the rotations. They have now the 3rd worst record in the league and so, I wouldn't be surprised if they enter in tank mode for the rest of the season. Mostly thanks to the defensive aggressiveness from Rubio and Kirilenko, Minnesota is now forcing and creating a lot of turnovers, with an opponent turnover rate of 16.05% on their last 10 games! If they had that number as their season average, they would be #1 in the league! This aggressiveness will be important for tonight, as Phoenix's offense has no flow whatsoever lately and they have been very turnover prone, with 18.2 turnovers per game over their last 9 games! Therefore, we have a great edge favoring the Wolves's defense tonight. Minnesota's main problem on defense has been on the perimeter, but Phoenix's offense is the second worst 3pts shooting team in the league, only in front of Minnesota. With an healthy Ricky Rubio on the floor, Minnesota's offense is actually looking good. There are passing lanes and floor spacing, with Rubio always finding a way to feed Nikola Pekovic and Derrick Williams down low, while Andrei Kirilenko's Point Forward skills give the Wolves another good passing option. Note that against the Warriors, all the Wolves's starters ended the game with a positive net +/- team numbers and they actually hit 33 of their 67 shots, while their bench scored just 11 points and shot 4-18 FG! Of course, Golden State has Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry coming off the bench and that gave them a huge second unit edge over Minnesota, but Phoenix doesn't have such quality players coming off the bench! Minnesota is a way better team than Phoenix right now and so, they don't deserve to be underdogs in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Wolves tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 Minnesota Timberwolves (+1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes