Friday, February 22, 2013

NBA Free Premium Play 02/22: Houston Rockets @ Brooklyn Nets

Houston  at Brooklyn 
NBA - 809 Houston Rockets @ 810 Brooklyn Nets

Projected Line: 192 points


You can read Houston x Oklahoma City Recap in here: http://andregomescapper.blogspot.pt/2013/02/nba-0221-game-previews-articles.html

The Rockets are coming from a huge win over the Thunder, but this game may leave marks for tonight's contest. That game had a pace of 104, the team was shorthanded and they were forced to use their starters for heavy minutes: Carlos Delfino 42 minutes, Jeremy Lin 42 minutes, James Harden 44 minutes and Chandler Parsons only played 35 minutes because he got injured during the game. The Rockets only had 1 day off to rest and they had to travel to Brooklyn, so this is a tough spot for them to perform. On the other hand, the Nets don't have an easy spot neither. They will be playing their third game in four nights, after a home-home series against Milwaukee, where they won both games. On their last game at Milwaukee, they won the game mostly due to their bench, as their starters looked lethargic! Now on a poor spot, I don't expect the Nets to be particularly energetic tonight either.

Matchup wise, Houston has a clear edge with the speed of their guards. James Harden and Jeremy Lin have a clear edge in terms of speed against Deron Williams and Joe Johnson, so the Nets's gameplan for tonight will be very simple: insert a slow pace in the game and avoid a run and gun game at any cost! Brooklyn will try to take advantage of their size edge in the frontcourt, with Brook Lopez, while refusing to run as they would get crushed by the Rockets on an up and down game, even though Houston's spot is very tough.

The first time these two teams faced each other, Brooklyn was blown out at Houston. The Nets were unable to slow down the pace and because of that, the Nets allowed a season high of 119 points! Note that the pace of that game was "just" 90.80! Brooklyn had no time to prepare for that game, as it was a back to back contest for them and they had been crushed at Memphis the night before. Deron Williams had his best offensive game of the season with 10-15 FG, 27 points and 11 assists, while Houston's offense did whatever they wanted to do with 60 points in the paint, 27 fast break points and 12-28 (42.9%) 3pts! With the Nets using a different game plan tonight and with both teams being on a poor spot, I see this line as being set way too high. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 809/810 Under 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

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