NBA - 501 Miami Heat @ 502 Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected Line: 200 points | Oklahoma City by 8 points
Remember when Miami's Big Three started three seasons ago that they struggled against great half court defensive teams and so, they needed to score in transition (where they have been great since the start of this area) in order to be efficient on the offensive end? Well, forget those days as Miami has been able to put some great offensive numbers on their last six games, while playing almost exclusively on slow pace!
at Toronto: 86.98 pace / 114.32 offensive rating
vs Charlotte: 88.01 pace / 113.87 offensive rating
vs Houston: 93.75 pace / 123.29 offensive rating
vs LA Clippers: 87.09 pace / 131.27 offensive rating
vs LA Lakers: 85.73 pace / 127.88 offensive rating
vs Portland: 85.29 pace / 143.59 offensive rating
On these six games, we can only classify one of them as a fast paced game (against Houston), but besides that game, the Heat were able to score in an insane way despite playing primarily in half court sets! The biggest reason for that has been Lebron James, who has been shooting over 60% FG and scoring more than 30 points per game during this span! Miami only needed to raise their intensity in some key stretches to comfortably crush their opponents. On their last game against Portland, Miami had three monster runs throughout the game, as they started the game with a 15-4 run, then they started the second half with a 23-6 run and ended the game on a 16-2 run! If we combined these runs, the Heat outscored the Blazers by 54-12 during these spans! When you are shooting 110-142 FG at the rim (77.4% FG!), then you will score a lot of points!
On the other hand, Oklahoma City was on a similar mood as Miami by crushing everybody in sight. They beat Dallas by 21 points, Golden State by 21 points and then Phoenix twice by 31 and 28 points until they lost on their last game at Utah! The main reason for that was the fact that they were already focused in tonight's game. The Thunder was sloppy and their effort was questionable against a struggling Jazz team. Measuring effort levels is a silly and tough task, but there are three key factors that we can identity in order to measure their effort/focus level:
1) Rebounding: Utah won the boards battle by grabbing 60.8% of the rebounds and had a 16-7 edge on offensive rebounds
2) Turnovers: Oklahoma City committed 20 turnovers, with their starters committing 16 of them
3) Free Throw Percentage: even though they are by far the best team in the league on this area, they shot just 13-23 (56.5%) FT during that game
For tonight, we can certainly expect Oklahoma City with a maximum effort and focused on this big game for them. We are in front of the two best offensive teams in the league and in my opinion, the best teams in each conference, so this is a game that you can't miss!
I won't even mention how much this game means for Oklahoma City: revenge game for last year's NBA Finals plus their loss at Miami on Christmas Day because that's silly stuff. If that was so important, then the Warriors would have defeated the Rockets at home last Tuesday in a big revenge game for them. It's important to know that Oklahoma City is fired up, but the most important part is to analyse the matchups and their tecnihcal spot.
Thanks to Lebron James's greatness, Miami has been playing in a half court style. They are really excelling in set plays or give the ball to Lebron and let him decide. For today, the approach will be the same and so, I expect this game to be played on a really slow pace. Note that the key factor for Miami's games being played on half court isn't being just Miami's offense accepting that role, but also because they aren't committing turnovers (13, 11, 10, 14, 11 and 9 on their last six games), so their opponents can't score transition points against them.
The problem is that Miami's offense is a bit overrated on this span, as take a look at their opponents' defensive ranks: Toronto #23, Charlotte #29, Houston #21, LA Clippers #6, LA Lakers #16 and Portland #26! We can only consider the Clippers as an elite defensive team, but we can't forget that even though the Clippers were "healthy" on that game, it was the first game that their best players returned to the lineup and so, they were rusty and off sync, leaving the Clippers very far from being their best basketball, especially on defense. So, Miami crushed their opponents on their last six games and credit must be given to them, but Oklahoma City is a completely different opponent!
I haven't been liking the fact that Miami is just choosing key moments to blow their opponents apart, while showing little effort in the remaining of the game, as this creates a bad habit on them and if that happens tonight against Oklahoma City, they will be screwed!
Oklahoma City is probably on their best possible spot for tonight. They are angry for having lost at Utah after such a great run due to lack of effort and focus. As I've mentioned, this game will be played on a slow pace and this will only benefit the Thunder, as their interior defense formed by Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka works very much better in slow paced games, and this matchup has been the worst problem for Oklahoma City when they face Miami, but on a slow paced game, these two players can establish themselves in their defensive position very well.
I believe Miami is coming to this game with the wrong mindset and Oklahoma City will take advantage of that to have a very nice win tonight. As I also believe this game will be played on a very slow pace, I'll be taking both the Thunder and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 204,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Oklahoma City Thunder (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
No comments:
Post a Comment