Thursday, February 28, 2013

NBA Premium Play 02/27: Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs


NBA - 715 Phoenix Suns @ 716 San Antonio Spurs

Projected Line: San Antonio by 20 points

Phoenix won an ugly basketball game last night at home against Minnesota in overtime. Phoenix's offense was a bit interesting due to the fact that they shot 41% FG, even though they had no ball movement, with 21 turnovers and several plays where the shotclock was expiring with them not being able to prepare a single offensive set play! Well, that's not unexpected considering the fact that Wesley Johnson played almost 40 minutes, while Michael Beasley played just 13 minutes. What saved the Suns yesterday was Minnesota's horrible shooting. The Wolves's bench keeps being a disaster, Alexey Shved is completely missing in action, J.J. Barea keeps forcing shots and this time, Luke Ridnour and Ricky Rubio combined a shooting of 5-23 FG! Coach Adelman started the second half with a three-guard lineup formed by Ricky Rubio, J.J. Barea and Luke Ridnour, and even though the trio ended the game with a combined of 12-40 FG, Phoenix struggled to adjust to Minnesota's speed on the backcourt. This was one of the reasons for the high amount of turnovers from the Suns, but Minnesota's offense was a complete disaster and wasn't able to fully take advantage of the Suns's errors throughout the game.

The Suns will play at San Antonio tonight, on a terrible physical spot for them. Their task for tonight is immediately tough because of that, especially against an elite rested team of San Antonio, who hasn't played at home for almost a month and so, they will have a fired up crowd for tonight. Phoenix's offense is such a mess with so many turnovers that it's very easy for their opponents to take advantage of their errors to score easy points off TO's. These two teams faced each other in Phoenix last Sunday and San Antonio easily won the contest by 10 points, in a game where they could have won by more than 20 points. In fact, the Spurs led the game by 21 points at a certain point of the game. However, the Spurs were on a poor spot on that game, as they were playing their final game of the Rodeo Trip, while coming from tough back to back games at LA against the Clippers and at Golden State, in a contest that went to overtime. Tony Parker didn't face the Suns last Sunday and with that, the Spurs slowed down in the fourth quarter and allowed the Suns to recover a bit and have a "respectable" loss.

The same won't happen tonight. San Antonio is rested, Tony Parker will play and it's the Suns who are on a tough physical spot this time. However, independently from the spot, given the current form of the Suns, they will get crushed against any elite team. This is exactly what it's going to happen tonight and so, I'll be taking San Antonio in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 716 San Antonio Spurs (-15.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

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