NBA - 721 Sacramento Kings @ 722 Dallas Mavericks
Projected Line: 213 points
Sacramento is coming to this game in a nice mood. I know this will be their fourth game in five nights, but they have been very competitive lately. They are scoring well, all their guys are playing (the Kings used 10 players yesterday who played at least 14 minutes each), so there isn't a great incentive into changing anything for tonight. So, it's not expected to see them suddenly making a huge effort on defense, as they have been quite poor on defense lately with a defensive rating of 113, 117 and 113 on their last three games! The good part for them is that their offense has been pretty well lately. They are shooting well from both the outside and inside, but they are especially pushing up the pace big time! On their last three games, Sacramento scored 25, 16 and 28 fast break points thanks to that! Think about this for a second: the Kings were the first team this season to score more than 100 points at Memphis! And they achieved that by scoring 28 fast break points and 58 points in the paint against an elite defensive team!
The most interesting part of this game will be to check Dallas's approach in games similar to their spot for tonight. When the Mavericks are rested and playing at home like tonight, while facing teams on back to back spots, they simply try to run them out of the gym! If we exclude a game against Memphis, as the Grizzlies play with a peculiar style that has nothing in common with the Kings, Dallas has averaged 25.3 fast break points on their last seven home games while facing a team on a back to back spot! With the Mavericks push up the pace tonight as well and with the Kings being confident on offense and very comfortable on very fast paced games, we can expect this contest to be a pure run and gun game. This will be the third game between these two teams and so far, these two teams have scored 18, 25, 23 and 23 fast break points in these games! I expect this trend to continue today, on a game that has everything to be a very high scoring one. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 721/722 Over 209,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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