Projected Line: 178 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
This is a rematch from last Sunday's game, where the Mercury lost at home against the Sparks. That game ended with 164 points scored, with the first quarter being by far the quarter with less points scored: 33 points + 47 points + 47 points + 37 points! The explanation in here for such a low scoring first quarter is quite easy to understand: Phoenix's leading scorer Diana Taurasi picked her second foul early in the game (6min to go in the 1Q) and she had to be benched. Phoenix had 7 points in four minutes, but then they scored just 6 points in the final six minutes of the quarter with Taurasi in the bench!
The Sparks played yesterday against Atlanta and they struggled on rebounding by allowing the Dream to grab 17 offensive boards, something that destroyed the Sparks' normally good offensive flow. The Sparks scored just 9 fast break points in the game, mostly because they couldn't grab defensive rebounds to get out in transition. Now against Phoenix, this won't be an issue, as the Mercury is dead last in the league on offensive rebound rate with 25.4%! Phoenix will continue not having Brittney Griner for tonight and without her, the Mercury's interior defense is non-existent and they have allowed 44 and 46 points in the paint on their last two games! With the Sparks having tired legs on the second night of a back to back, I expect Phoenix to push the pace tonight and with Taurasi avoiding fouls this time, Phoenix will score a lot more points tonight than they did last Sunday. Therefore, I believe this game will be a super high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 653/654 Over 172 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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