MLB - 913 Cincinnati Reds @ 914 San Francisco Giants
(Starting Pitchers: M. Leake vs C. Gaudin)
The Giants are home dogs in here, but I don't agree with the notion that Leake is a better SP than Gaudin, as not only the latter has actually better advanced numbers than Leake, as the Reds' SP for tonight's game has been struggling as of late. Leake had just two quality outings over his last six, with one of them being against the struggling Rangers' offense. Leake's last three outings are especially worrying with poor K/BB ratios of 5/2, 2/4 and 2/1! To make things worse for him tonight, San Francisco's roster is hitting .351 BA and .990 OPS in 77 AB's against him! Therefore, I believe Leake will struggle tonight.
On the other side, Chad Gaudin is coming from four consecutive good starts with 0, 1, 1 and 0 earned runs allowed! He impressed especially against the red hot Dodgers with one earned run allowed on just seven innings, while having a great 9/1 K/BB! Gaudin's 2.23 ERA won't last forever, but his 2.95 FIP, 3.61 xFIP and 3.61 SIERA show that he has been indeed great. Therefore, I believe the Giants will have a slight edge on SP tonight, so I see them having great value as home dogs in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 914 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ C. Gaudin) @ +103 / 2.03 on 5Dimes
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