(Starting Pitchers: B. Arroyo vs H. Ryu)
I faded Hyun-Jin Ryu on his last outing at Arizona, but his offense saved him, as he allowed five earned runs in five innings. Even though Ryu showed good promise early in the season, this is his first season in the MLB and he is starting to wear down a bit. This has been clear on his month-by-month split stats:
April: 30.3% K%, 6.6% BB%, .232 BA
May: 15.4% K%, 8.8% BB%, .210 BA
June: 13.9% K%, 8.3% BB%, .280 BA
July: 12.0% K%, 9.3% BB%, .294 BA
Less strikeouts, more walks and also more hittable! To make things worse for Ryu, he has been facing subpar teams on hitting versus LH pitchers and he still struggled:
TOR #15 w/ .707
ARI #17 w/ .704
SF 2x #21 w/ .697
PHI #13 w/ .708
NYY #28 w/ .650
Now against Cincinnati who is #5 with .732 OPS, I believe Ryu will struggle big time in here.
On the other side, Bronson Arroyo is coming from a complete game shutdown against San Francisco last Monday. Arroyo has the tendency to struggle against LH batters with .286 BA, .348 wOBA, 5.23 FIP and 4.67 xFIP, so this is why his two worst starts on his last ten games were against Oakland and Cleveland, two teams full of LH batters. This isn't the case with the Dodgers, who have just three LH regular hitters in Crawford, Gonzalez and Ethier. Arroyo also has some issues with homeruns, but that won't be a problem on LA's pitcher-friendly park. Arroyo is coming from facing three hot offenses in a row (San Francisco, Atlanta, Seattle) and he played well in all of them. Therefore, I expect him to have another good outing tonight, while Ryu should struggle, giving the Reds a lot of value as underdogs tonight. I'm taking Cincinnati in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 963 Cincinnati Reds ML (w/ B. Arroyo) @ +117 / 2.17 on Bovada
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