MLB - 953 St Louis Cardinals @ 954 Chicago Cubs
(Starting Pitchers: L. Lynn vs M. Garza)
Matt Garza is coming from two runs allowed in seven innings against the White Sox last Monday. He has been quite decent lately, but he only faced one good offensive team lately in Oakland. So, even though Garza has been pitching well, he has been having a really favorable schedule. Look at the opposing WRC of his last six opponents: 0.78; 1.07; 0.97; 0.78; 0.94; 0.82 (average = 1.00). Garza will finally face a superior offensive team tonight in the Cardinals and I believe he will finally get exposed on this contest.
On the other hand, Lance Lynn will start for the Cardinals and he is coming from two earned runs allowed in seven innings last Sunday against the Marlins. Lynn struggled a few weeks ago, but he has since bounced back with two good starts. He had a 0.90 FIP and 1.84 xFIP against the Angels, even though he allowed five runs, while on his last outing against Miami, he had once again great advanced stats with 1.92 FIP and 2.76 xFIP. Lynn was great in two games against the Cubs earlier on the season, with 6/2 and 8/1 K/BB ratios in those outings. I give a clear edge to St Louis on offense and bullpen, while the SP have a similar level in my opinion. So, I see great value on the Cardinals tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ L. Lynn) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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