(Starting Pitchers: J. Hefner vs C. Morton)
Both teams had a day off yesterday. The Mets have won their last four games, including a road sweep at San Francisco! On the other hand, Pittsburgh has lost four of their last five games and lost a bit of their steam. The Mets will start Jeremy Hefner tonight and he has been phenomenal lately. I took him on his last start at Milwaukee and he was great with just one earned run allowed in seven innings, while having a 8/1 K/BB ratio. According to my numbers, he had three great outings on his last six starts, while the other three outings were also quite decent. This is why he ended June with a great 2.90 FIP and 3.35 xFIP! One of my reasons why I took him at Milwaukee is because the Brewers' lineup is full of RH batters. Hefner has some issues versus LH batters (5.41 FIP and 4.80 xFIP), but he is simply amazing versus RH batters! Now against the Pirates, I expect Hefner to dominate once again tonight, as Pedro Alvarez is the only dangerous LH batters that Pittsburgh has on its lineup. This is exactly what Pittsburgh hits way worse versus RH pitchers than LH pitchers, with just .221 BA versus RH pitchers on their last 10 games.
Pittsburgh is starting Charlie Morton tonight, who has been very erratic and inconsistent since he returned to the league. Morton allowed four runs in six innings against the Cubs last Saturday. He hasn't been horrible in any start, but still his command is average-at-best with a 2.0 K/BB ratio. It's clearly that Morton isn't at the same awesome level that Hefner is right now, while the Mets' offense may be ranked #23 for the season, but they are #12 on their last 14 days. With the Mets having the super in-form Hefner tonight and with their confident offense, I expect them to be super competitive tonight and start the game very well under Hefner. So, I'll be taking the Mets on the first five innings in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903 New York Mets First 5 Innings ML @ +133 / 2.33 on 5Dimes
No comments:
Post a Comment