Thursday, July 11, 2013

MLB Free Premium Play 07/11: Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners

  
Boston  at Seattle 
MLB - 971 Boston Red Sox @ 972 Seattle Mariners

(Starting Pitchers: R. Dempster vs E. Ramirez)


Seattle called Erasmo Ramirez to start in today's game. He had a 3.09 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 42/14 K/BB ratio in seven starts for Triple-A Tacoma this season. Sure Ramirez couldn't have a tougher opponent on his season debut on the majors, but he has a decent arsenal and he might surprise the Red Sox today.

On the other hand, Ryan Dempster is starting for the Red Sox today and he might have some issues today, especially when Seattle is the #1 offense in the league over the last 14 days! Dempster's strikeout punch seems to be disappearing as the season goes by (35.3% K% in April; 18.8% in May; 15.2% in June; 14.8% on his last start) and this is a clear sign that he is also regressing after a great start of the season. According to my numbers, he had just one start with good advanced numbers on his last six outings, where he allowed two earned runs in 5.1 innings against Toronto, but where he still showed a poor command with 2/3 K/BB! Dempster will now face the red hot Mariners (#1 in offense L14 days; #9 in offense L30 days) and I believe he will struggle today. As I actually believe Ramirez will be able to limit the damage today, I see great value on Seattle today and so, I'll be taking the Mariners in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 972 Seattle Mariners RL +1 (w/ E. Ramirez) @ -105 / 1.95 on 5Dimes

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