(Starting Pitchers: C. Archer vs I. Nova)
Tampa Bay took advantage yesterday of the fact that they have the best offense in the league versus LH pitchers and pounded C.C. Sabathia. Even though it was an easy win for the Rays, it was interesting to see the Yankees's offense to be decent with six runs in eleven hits! For today's game, I expect things to be different, as the Yankees will have a SP edge in here. Ivan Nova will start for them and he has been very solid since he returned from the DL. He had a FIP and xFIP below 3.50 in June and July, while also having K% numbers above 20%! This is particularly impressive, as Nova had a tough schedule with starts against Tampa Bay, Baltimore and even a road start at Texas on his last outing. Unlike Sabathia, Nova is currently in good form and he should have a good outing in here.
On the other hand, the Rays will start Chris Archer, who is currently on my fade alert list. I faded him on his last outing at Toronto by saying that his three previous "quality" outings in a row had happened against favorable matchup, as he faced Houston twice and also Minnesota. Archer allowed just one earned run against the Blue Jays, but his 1/4 K/BB ratio was shockingly bad. This is why Archer had a 4.90 FIP and 7.70 xFIP in that game. Therefore, I expect Archer to finally start regressing today, especially now that the Yankees are showing some offensive life once again. So, I'll be taking the NY team as home underdogs today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 968 New York Yankees ML (w/ I. Nova) @ +104 / 2.04 on Bovada
No comments:
Post a Comment