Monday, July 29, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/28: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

MLB - 921 Boston Red Sox @ 922 Baltimore Orioles

(Starting Pitchers: J. Lester vs J. Hammel)

Jon Lester is starting for the Red Sox today and after a poor run of games, he bounced back right before the All Star break with good outings against San Diego and Oakland. After the break, he took advantage to fix some issues and he dominated Tampa Bay with two earned runs allowed in 6.1 innings, while having a great 8/0 K/BB ratio. The good news for Lester is that these three teams are top hitting teams against LH pitchers (Tampa Bay #1; Oakland #6; San Diego #5), so Lester is indeed back to his best. He will now face Baltimore, a team that is just #22 in the league versus LH pitchers with a .224 vs LHP on their last 10 games! So, Lester has every condition to dominate today.

Jason Hammel will start for Baltimore and he is currently struggling a lot: 5.24 ERA, 5.07 FIP, .279 BA and a lot of homeruns allowed with a 13.8 HR/FB rate. He had a recent good outing against the Yankees in July 7, but the Yankees' offense was horrible at the time! Now against the top hitting team of the Red Sox, who finally had a good offensive game yesterday, Hammel is getting pounded. Hammel struggles against LH batters with a .291 BA, .373 wOBA, 5.49 FIP and 5.13 xFIP this season and the Red Sox will be using six guys hitting from the left side in today's lineup:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF
2. Shane Victorino (S) RF
3. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B
4. David Ortiz (L) DH
5. Mike Napoli (R) 1B
6. Mike Carp (L) LF
7. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (S) C
8. Stephen Drew (L) SS
9. Jose Iglesias (R) 3B

With such a SP edge favoring the Red Sox today, I'll have to take them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 921 Boston Red Sox ML (w/ J. Lester) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

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